Cardinals vs. Rays Pick MLB – June 10th

How about the day for Cleveland’s Lonnie Chisenhall last night? The young third baseman, who would be leading the league in batting at .380 if he had enough at bats to qualify, had a night for the ages. He became the first player in nearly forty years to go five for five with 9 RBI and 3 HR in a game. Not bad for a highly touted player who has yet to record more than 282 at bats in a season.

The Indians won the game 17-7, to notch a rare road win. Games like last night are part of what can make baseball a tricky sport to predict (and why I try to search for value lines rather than just predicting winners). The Indians had the WORST road record in all of baseball, so why wouldn’t they go into Texas and put up a season-high 17 runs??

We dropped our pick as well last night, with the Angels knocking off the A’s 4-1, tucking well under the 8.5 TOTAL. We will try to get back on track with a winner tonight.

Today’s Free Pick:

St. Louis Cardinals -134 at Tampa Bay Rays +125 (Total: 7)

Adam Wainwright (8-3, 2.31 ERA) vs. Jake Odorizzi (2-6, 5.31)

The nightmare continues in Tampa Bay. A season that began with many pundits picking them to win the World Series has turned into a 24-41 start; the worst record in all of MLB, and have lost 13 of their last 14 games including two consecutive shutouts. They’ve averaged 2.25 runs per game during that stretch. They’ve never been shut out three times in the history of their franchise, so surely they’ll score some runs tonight, right?

Well… hosting Adam Wainwright isn’t a very good recipe for breaking out of an offensive funk. Wainwright is the front-runner to start the All-Star Game for the National League, and as great as he has been all season, he has been even better on the road. He is 6-2 with a 1.68 ERA away from home and should have a nice time tonight pitching in the spacious dome against a massively slumping lineup.

Jake Odorizzi has a tall task trying to out-duel Wainwright, and will likely need some run support today to have a chance. I’m not thinking it’s likely he will get too much. In that case, the fact he is 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA in his last four outings is a pretty bad sign.

I like the Cards to continue the Rays misery, and they are a pretty good value with Wainwright dealing at just -134. The pitching edge alone should get him around -140, add in the respective team playing behind the pitchers? This one seemed like a -175 or higher. I’ll take the value and the better team and better pitcher.

Free Pick: St. Louis Cardinals to WIN -134