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Cardinals vs. Reds MLB Pick – September 20th

We leaned towards the Brewers last night, but ended up going with the better value on the runline. It turned out not to matter as each was an easy winner to keep a nice little run to close the season powering forward. We’ve won five of our last six decisions (one starter scratched in the middle) and are hoping to close out the final two weeks in fine fashion.

The Brewers are closing out the season in fine fashion as well, now winners of 8 of their last 10 games to close to just one game behind the Rockies for the final wildcard spot after Colorado’s wacky walkoff loss in San Francisco. They haven’t gained any ground on the Cubs, who has also won seven straight games, but they are right in the mix to take their scorching momentum into a one-game playoff – still far more than their fans could have dreamed of back in April.

The Cardinals are still lurking around as well, thanks to some late season erosion from the Rockies, and still have a puncher’s chance at 3 ½ games behind. Every game matters for the Redbirds, but they have a huge pitching edge tonight. Can they capitalize??

Today’s MLB Pick:

St. Louis Cardinals -155 at Cincinnati Reds +145 (Total: 9.5)
Luke Weaver (6-1, 1.89 ERA) vs. Rookie Davis (1-2, 7.71 ERA)

Two young pitchers link up tonight in hitter-friendly GABP, but their young careers have gone decided different so far this season. Luke Weaver has solidified himself as a bonafide option in the Cardinals rotation moving forward. He is 5-0 with a 1.15 ERA and 42 strikeouts against just four walks in his last five starts. DOMINANT. Last week he allowed just a single unearned run in six innings against these same Reds.

Meanwhile, Rookie Davis is part of the massive glut of young arms who have gotten a look for the Reds this season and has failed to separate himself from the pack. He has rejoined the rotation after Triple-A Louisville’s season ended. Davis was on the Reds’ Opening Day roster and is making his first start since returning to the major leagues. For the season, Davis is 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA in five starts. He has 13 walks in 19 innings as a starter.

The line is reasonable for the Cardinals tonight, considering how awesome Weaver has been. But I am going to get a little greedy and grab the inflated value on the run line. The Cards are a pretty solid bet tonight, and I expect them to win with some room to spare.

Today’s MLB Pick: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS RUNLINE -1.5 (+110)

 

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