The Diamondbacks got a brilliant shutout performance from Robbie Ray yesterday in blanking the Brewers 4-0 in Milwaukee. Unfortunately, it snapped our brief winning streak, but we will look to get back on the grind and see if we can start a nice winning weekend. We have a whole roster of new series to look at across the National League, highlighted by the Cardinals in Colorado and the Cubbies heading out to Chavez Ravine in a potential postseason preview against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Jake Arrieta gets the ball for the Cubs tonight with a ton of question marks surrounding the former Cy Young winner. He is a respectable 5-3 on the season but the 4.80 ERA is cause for some concern. There’s no disputing he hasn’t been the same pitcher since the middle of last season – and not that the year and half run that flirted with some of the best stretches by a starting pitcher in the history of baseball were eternally sustainable, but an ERA hovering near five with the calendar getting ready to read ‘June’ is problematic. Opposing him is 26-year old Alex Wood who is having a breakout season at 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA. Can he keep it going against the defending World Series Champs??
Elsewhere, the Diamondbacks and Brewers continue their series of surprising contenders and the Cardinals will hand the ball to Carlos Martinez in search of a solid outing against the 6-1 Senzatela and the Rockies at Coors.
It should be a good night of baseball. Here’s my favorite game on the board from a wagering perspective.
Today’s MLB Pick:
St. Louis Cardinals -118 at Colorado Rockies +109 (Total: 10.5)
Carlos Martinez (3-3, 3.28 ERA) vs. Antonio Senzatela (6-1, 3.67 ERA)
The Rockies have ridden Senzatela to an impressive six wins already this season, but he will have his work cut out for him against a tough opposing pitcher and staunch Cardinals lineup. He has been excellent this season, but the 22-year old rookie might be showing some signs of fatigue. He reached the 100-pitch mark for the first time two starts ago, and hasn’t been great since. He has lasted just five innings in his last two starts and has given up twelve hits, seven walks and EIGHT runs over just ten innings pitched. He has been decent at Coors, posting a 3.77 career ERA.
Opposing Senzatela is Carlos Martinez. The good news for the Rockies is that the Cardinals’ ace has struggled both on the road this season and at Coors in his career. He has a 1-2 record with a 5.51 ERA on the road this season, and in seven career starts against Colorado he has posted a robust 6.97 ERA. He owns a 5.54 ERA in three games in Coors Field.
The ten run threshold sounds high, but with these two powerful offenses and some pitchers with their own respective struggles, I think that total is vulnerable tonight. Colorado has been the most productive offense in the National League in the month of May and St. Louis has been steadily getting back to normal since a slow start to the season.
I’ll take both clubs to score some runs tonight.
Today’s MLB Pick: RUN TOTAL OVER 10.5