gravatar

Charlie Blackmon and FanDuel’s Top MLB DFS Picks – July 11th

Things cool down slightly in daily fantasy baseball on Wednesday, as three early games take the pressure off of the main slate. You still get 11 games to work with, though, which should give you plenty of viable pitching options as well as a slew of stacks to consider.

Last night was pretty solid. Rich Hill (30 fantasy points) wasn’t atrocious, but he also wasn’t the elite value I pegged him as. He didn’t kill me, while my Cardinals stack (14 runs!) was spot on. Unfortunately, Dexter Fowler went nuts and was not part of my four-man St. Louis stack.

I did have hits across my lineup, though, as Jose Martinez (25), Matt Carpenter (15.4), Paul DeJong (15.6) and Marcell Ozuna (12.7) all worked out and made my Cards stack look brilliant. I didn’t get that stack completely right, but I’m still quite pleased with the results.

The Rangers didn’t go crazy (Nomar Mazara got 0), but Rougned Odor donged early and returned nice value with a stellar 31.3 fantasy points. He was my top play on the night and was a big reason why my lineup placed last night.

Targeting the Diamondbacks at Coors Field was also a good call. The Rockies scored just two runs, while A.J. Pollock (18.7) went yard. Paul Goldschmidt (6) got on the board, but was obviously a pretty big disappointment.

Overall, my pitcher was meh, but I had just one bat truly fail me. It was a solid night and I finished in the green with 154 total points. Hopefully you pivoted off of Goldy and Mazara and climbed even higher than I did.

It’s onward and upward tonight, so let’s dive into FanDuel’s 11-game main slate and see what my favorite GPP squad looks like:

SP: Luke Weaver – St. Louis Cardinals ($6.6k)

If I can’t try Dream Weaver against the White Sox, when can I? Weaver is immensely talented, but has admittedly struggled for a lot of 2018. He comes with clear risk in a hitter’s park against a Chicago offense that has some pop, but he’s also been in pretty good form and has the clear edge in this matchup.

For one, he’s looked good lately with 44+ fantasy points in two of his last three starts. He’s got a tough road game in this park, but Chicago whiffs at a high rate and their power usually shows up far more regularly against left-handed pitching.

I think this is a pretty good spot for a talented young arm and the price is rather nice. I love Chris Sale and the other stud aces as much as anyone else, but they’re very expensive. In tourneys, I’ll be dropping down to high upside arms and Weaver heads that list for me.

C/1B: Alex Avila – Arizona Diamondbacks ($3.1k)

I’ve got Coors fever going into tonight. Typically I find it a bit lazy to just point to Coors Field bats and move along, but I actually love the prices and given my value arm, I think you can load up on this game. The pitching isn’t nearly as fearful tonight, either, so after a ho-hum seven-run affair on Tuesday, I get the feeling this game is going to blow up.

In the past I always have been resistant to the idea of “blindly” stacking a game just because of a ballpark. Later in the night a fellow DFS-er friend of mine would then message me that “Coors is Coors-ing” and it’d really annoy me.

Sometimes it didn’t go that way (like last night), but you have to play the odds and tonight is a great time to go hard at this game with two very powerful lineups in a dangerous setting.

It starts with Avila, who is too cheap given his power (specifically versus right-handed pitching). He and his AZ crew face German Marquez, who is a fine enough pitcher, but (2-5, 7.93 ERA, 9 HR, .345 BA) hasn’t been great in his home park.

2B: Ketel Marte – Arizona Diamondbacks ($3.5k)

Marquez has gotten worked by the D’Backs this year (10 hits, 3 HR, 6 runs across 9 innings) and has his toughest times against left-handed bats. You can still target right-handed power like Nick Ahmed, Paul Goldschmidt and/or A.J. Pollock here, but I’ll stick to the left side of the plate.

Marte can hit from either side and has shown better from the right side this year, but he’s donged Marquez before and I’ll trust the matchup and park in this spot. If you want a pivot, consider Jason Kipnis ($3.2k) at home against a beatable Reds arm.

3B: Jake Lamb – Arizona Diamondbacks ($4.1k)

Lamb is in a mild rut, but he’s in a dream park and owns the splits edge in this matchup with Marquez. He has really good power against right-handed hurlers and obviously gets a boost in this setting. His price and recent form may lower his ownership, too, which is something I’ll be hoping for.

SS: Chris Taylor – Los Angeles Dodgers ($3.2k)

I can’t afford Trevor Story tonight and I’m not particularly interested in Ahmed in this spot, so I’ll get a value SS in CT3. He’s in a bad park for run production, but he can slay lefties and feels too cheap.

The Dodgers in general are a fun stack that could go low-owned due to the presence of Coors and their placement in a bad park.

OF: Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies ($3.6k)

I like the left side for the Rockies, too. Shelby Miller is a big name but he has not been good at all in his first three starts of the year. He can make bats miss a bit, but he’s giving up a lot of contact and could obviously get in trouble in a hurry tonight.

CarGo can crush right-handed pitching and understandably tends to be a way more efficient player in his home park. He’s also lit up Miller (7-18, 1 HR) in the past, while he’s probably way too cheap when you look at the splits, park and matchup.

OF: Charlie Blackmon – Colorado Rockies ($4.4k)

Chuck had slowed down when it comes to the long ball, but then he fired off three dongs over his last six outing. I’d say he’s back, while a date in Coors against Miller looks really enticing on paper.

I don’t see much reason not to force him into your lineup tonight, while I actually think Red Sox, Yankees and Angels bats could be a bit trappy on this slate. Maybe I’m wrong there, but I want all of the Coors hitting I can get my hands on and Weaver actually makes that super easy to accomplish.

OF: David Peralta – Arizona Diamondbacks ($3.9k)

It’s back to the left side of the plate with the D’Backs, as Peralta crushes right-handed pitching and is in the best park baseball has to offer. Not much more needs to be said here and considering the splits and park, he’s arguably too cheap.

Util: Kendrys Morales – Toronto Blue Jays ($2.6k)

I admittedly am not fully sold on Morales yet, but he does hit best from the left side and will be at SunTrust Park tonight, where lefty power owns all. Atlanta pitcher Mike Foltynewicz is quite good, but a cheap (and surely low-owned) one-off isn’t the worst idea.

Again, this is probably the one roster spot I’m still undecided on. I love Morales for his power and the park, but I may switch away from him if I fall in love with another bat in this price range.

The good thing is there are other options and depending on where he hits in the order, Astros rookie Kyle Tucker could be one of the better ones to turn to.

Overall, this is all made possible due to Luke Weaver, who is a clear risk but is a talented arm I don’t mind rolling out at his current price. As chalky as Coors Field can be, it’s going to be awfully difficult for people to load up there if they’re paying up for the elite pitchers on this slate.

That, and a lot of people looking to get exposure to Coors will force in super pricey bats like Goldy, Pollock, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. I’m not against those guys at all and I’m still paying a steep price in a few spots, but fading those guys and going with cheaper options is one daily fantasy baseball strategy to consider.

In the end, Coors needs to truly go off for this team to work out and Weaver needs to deliver against the White Sox. If he gets me 40+ fantasy points and the chalkiest game ever lives up to the hype, tonight could be a fun one.

Whether you’re with me all the way with this lineup or not, hopefully some of my analysis leads you in the right direction. Either way, I wish you luck tonight in your FanDuel daily fantasy baseball contests!

PLAY THIS LINEUP

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.