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Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals MLB Pick – September 9th

We came up just short yesterday of nailing another home underdog when we backed the Seattle Mariners against the New York Yankees. I didn’t at all like Lance Lynn in this one as he has been terrible all season long for two different teams since switching leagues in the offseason. And I thought that King Felix would give us his best, so I took a shot on a home dog.

Lynn was solid as he threw six two-run innings and Felix was pitching decently before being pulled from the game a bit early as he pitched four innings and allowed just the one earned run. The game was a tight one throughout and was tied up at two runs apiece heading into the seventh inning.  The Yankees took the lead in the seventh and played a little add-on in the top of the ninth to stretch the lead to 4-2. The Mariners made their last stand in the ninth inning and loaded the bases up with just one out but could not score and came up short.

I still feel this was a decent value spot. We didn’t pick up the win, but the game was very close and could have gone either way late. With the loss, the Mariners are spiraling out of contention as they are now seven and a half games back of the Oakland A’s for the second wild-card in the American League. If and when the Mariners miss the playoffs this season, you may look back at this series with New York as the final nail in the coffin. For today’s pick, I will take a look at the game between the Chicago Cubs and the Washington Nationals.

The Chicago Cubs are in Washington Sunday for game four of a four-game series with the Nationals. Mother nature has wreaked havoc in this series as several games have been postponed and the teams were forced to play a double-header yesterday to try and make it up. The Cubs took game one of the series, and the Nationals battled back to sweep the double-header yesterday to take a two games to one lead in the series.

Starting today for the Cubs is Mike Montgomery (4-5 3.85 ERA), and for the Nationals, it is Erick Fedde (1-3 6.00 ERA). The Cubs are -123 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 10:35 AM PST from Nationals Park in Washington D.C.

Mike Montgomery is doing what he always does for the Chicago Cubs, and that is anything that they ask of him. He will start games, work out of the bullpen, throw one inning or throw six. And no matter what role he is being used in, he seems to always hold his own. In August, Montgomery was 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in four appearances, three of them starts. He hasn’t seen the Nats much this season as he has just one relief appearance against them were he threw a scoreless inning.

Erick Fedde is one of the biggest prospects in the Nationals farm system. They brought him up this season and threw him in the regular rotation in June as the season was getting away from them and they were looking to start building for the future. Let’s just say the majors have not been kind to the young man.

Fedde is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in seven starts. And he really shouldn’t have even got that one win as he pitched terribly in the game, allowing five earned runs in five innings, but was bailed out by a whopping seventeen runs of support. The kid has a promising future ahead of him, but right now, he wouldn’t be pitching in the big leagues for a contending team.

This is another suspect number. The fact that the Nats were able to sweep yesterday’s double-header has likely dropped this number down twenty to thirty points below where it should be. The Cubs still remain the much better team, and Montgomery is the much better side of the starting pitching matchup. With all the weather issues it seemingly knocked the Cubs out of whack as it messed up their rotation and caused them to push pitchers back when they didn’t want to.

But with their jack of all trades guy in Mike Montgomery on the mound today I think they are in the clear. Fedde is tasked with facing one of if the not the best offense in the National League and I see him getting touched up early and often. I doubt Montgomery will dominate, but he should do plenty to give his team a chance to win the game.

So, I will lay a little wood in this one and feel like I am certainly a much bigger favorite. Give me the Chicago Cubs as small road favorites at -123 today in game four from Washington D.C.!

The Bet: Chicago Cubs -123

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