Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick – MLB April 30, 2021

The Chicago Cubs travel to Cincinnati for a three-game weekend series against the Reds at the Great American Ball Park. Following this three-game stretch, the Cubs have a big series against the LA Dodgers coming up on Monday. They are coming off a 9-3 win over the Atlanta Braves on Thursday night. The Cubs picked up the win to avoid getting swept in four games in Atlanta.

The Braves woke up from their slumber against the Cubs for wins of 8-7, 5-0, and 10-0. Chicago was able to respond in fine form to close out the four-game series with a 9-3 victory. Adbert Alzolay pitched a solid 6 innings for the Cubs, as he went 6 innings with 2 earned runs allowed. Conversely, Bryse Wilson lasted just 3 innings after conceding 7 hits and 4 earned runs for the Braves.

It hasn’t been the best of starts for the Cubs this season, but this wasn’t a team expecting much. They’re just about around where people saw them by the end of April. The Cubs head into Ohio with a record of 11-14. They were on a five-game losing streak before breaking out of the funk yesterday. Prior to losing to the Braves in three straight, the Cubs were losers in back-to-back against the Brewers, 4-3 and 7-0.

The Reds head into this one with a record of 11-13 for a 3.5-game deficit behind the NL Central-leading Brewers. This is a team that has continually received pre-season hype, but fallen when the games have to be played. There had to be people out there who overhyped the Reds again going into this season as well. They are coming off a successful series against the Dodgers.

Despite getting blown out, 8-0, in the series finale on Wednesday, I’d say it was a pretty good effort from the Reds. The Reds won the first two games impressively, 5-3 and 6-5, but then they came down to earth. Clayton Kershaw was effective through 7 innings with 4 hits and no earned runs allowed. Sonny Gray wasn’t bad, having allowed 4 hits and 2 earned runs through 5.2 innings. Head below for our free Cubs vs. Reds pick on April 30, 2021.

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Cubs +1.5 (-195)
  • Reds -1.5 (+170)
Moneyline:

  • Cubs -101
  • Reds -109
Total:

  • Over 9 (-105)
  • Under 9 (-105)

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Cubs vs. Reds Prediction:

The Cubs will turn to Jake Arrieta to stay hot on Friday night. After a big 9-3 win over the Braves, it’s important that the Cubs can keep things rolling in Cincinnati in a winnable series. Arrieta has been red-hot to open the season for the Cubs. They are going to need more than Arriera having success to reach the postseason, but his effort has been encouraging at least.

Arrieta goes into Ohio with an ERA of 2.57 and 1.18 WHIP through 28 innings of work. He’s allowed fewer than 3 earned runs in four his first five outings this season. In his most recent, Arrieta was strong against a good Brewers team, as he held them to 2 hits and 1 earned run in 6 innings of baseball.

The Reds are hitting .230 against Arrieta through 55 at-bats on the hill. Stay away from Joey Votto, who is hitting .364 against Arrieta, and he should be fine on Friday night. The Cubs’ rotation has plenty of holes, but Arrieta has been an early bright spot on the pitching staff. Cincinnati has not been holding up at all in that regard. They’re 29th as a team with 5.15 runs against per 9 innings.

Wade Miley started off this season in fire, but he’s stabilized in his last two performances. Miley didn’t allow a run in his first two showings of the 2021 campaign. He contained the Pirates and Giants for 2 hits each and no runs allowed. This coming from a guy that posted an ERA of 5.65 last season. Too good to be true? Well, Miley certainly wasn’t going to continue at that pace, so not surprised that he’s regressed some.

He’s a career 4.21 ERA and 1.38 WHIP pitcher since entering the majors in 2011. After the brilliant performance against the Giants, Miley was tagged for 6 earned runs in his next 11 innings on the bump. The Cubs have been better against lefties this season with a .230 average as opposed to a .203 against right-handed pitching. I’m not excited about betting Miley and the Reds as favorites over Arrieta. I think there’s more value on the Cubs tonight.

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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.