Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Pick – Major League Baseball April 14, 2022

The Colorado Rockies will head back home today, after a quick, but very successful, road trip to Texas, where they swept the Rangers in a 2-game set, as they welcome the Chicago Cubs to town for game 1 of a 4-game series. Colorado has won 4 straight games after a loss on Opening Day to the Los Angeles Dodgers and they are looking to stay hot against a Cub’s team that has a winning record on the year as well at 3-2. The Cubs had won 3 of their previous 4 games before losing yesterday in Pittsburgh to the Pirates to split the 2-game series with the Buccos.

A week ago, if I had told you that the Colorado Rockies would have the best record in the National League and that the Chicago Cubs would be tied for 1st place in the win column in the NL Central Division, you all would have likely laughed at me, yet here we are, as both of these teams have overachieved here early in the season. Whichever team is able to win this series is going to be feeling pretty good about themselves after the 1st full week of the 2022 MLB regular season, after coming into the year with limited expectations.

Game 1 is scheduled to start at 5:40 PM PST from Coors Field in Colorado and features a starting pitching matchup between Chicago’s Justin Steele and Colorado’s Kyle Freeland. The Rockies are (-120) home field favorites and the game total is 11 runs.

Chicago Cubs (3-2)

When the Chicago Cubs held a massive fire sale last year at the trade deadline, conventional wisdom said that it was going to take the Cubs at least a couple of years to rebuild. And while I still don’t see this roster as one that is going to be able to truly contend in the NL Central Division, they did spend some money and brought in some talent to bolster this roster. Newcomers like Andrelton Simmons, Nick Madrigal, and Marcus Stroman instantly made the Cubs better, but the guy I have my eye on is Japanese superstar Seiya Suzuki.

Suzuki was a monster at the plate in Japan, consistently hitting above .300 with 30+ home run power. When you compare his Japan stats with last year’s AL MVP Shohei Ohtani’s numbers when he was still playing in Japan, you could easily make a case that Suzuki is the better hitter.

The Cubs signed him to an $85 million dollar deal, and while it has only been a week, what he has been able to do has been awfully impressive. Suzuki is crushing the baseball right now, hitting .400, with 3 home runs, 9 RBI, and an OPS of 1.524. He is still only 27 years old and after watching Ohtani take Major League Baseball by storm in the last couple of years, Suzuki has MVP upside.

Justin Steele

Justin Steele made his Big League debut last season, working out of the Cubs bullpen. He has some solid success pitching in relief but was sent back down to the minors in late-May. Once the Cubs hemorrhaged all of their talent at the trade deadline, Steele got a shot to start for Chicago down the stretch, but did not pitch well. In 9 starts, he posted an ERA north of 5 runs, and the Cubs lost 6 of those 9 games.

Steele’s weak performance last season didn’t cost him his shot with the club this season though, as he starts this year as a member of Cub’s starting rotation. In his lone outing of the season, he took advantage of some huge run support and coasted to 5 shutout innings against the Milwaukee Brewers, picking up a win for his efforts. Steele is young and has a lot of room to grow, he is still just 26 years old, and should be around to see the end of this Cub’s rebuild. The question is, how will he be able to hang today against this red-hot Rockies team at the toughest to pitch in ballpark in the game?

Today’s Starting Pitching Matchup

Justin Steele

  • (1-0)
  • 0.00 ERA
  • 9.0 K/9 Ratio
  • 1.00 WHIP
Kyle Freeland

  • (0-1)
  • 12.27 ERA
  • 14.7 K/9 Ratio
  • 1.90 WHIP

Colorado Rockies (4-1)

As unlikely as the Colorado Rockies’ 4-1 start to the season might be, they could very well be undefeated right now, as they had a multi-run lead in the one game that they did lose this year. Nobody is expecting Colorado to hang around in the stacked NL West Division for very long, but they are playing well at the moment, and at home, they are nearly always tough to beat.

Last year, the Rockies had one of the strangest seasons in recent memory, as they were elite at home and awful on the road. Colorado has built this roster to play in the thin air of the Rocky Mountains, and that clearly paid off, as they finished 15 games above .500 in Denver last year.

It is home sweet home for the Rockies today, as they head back to Coors Field, looking to continue to extend their MLB-best 4-game winning streak. After losing Nolan Arenado before last season and then Trevor Story before this season, many people expected the Rockies to tank and start over. But then Colorado shocked the world when they went out and signed free agent Kris Bryant to a blockbuster contract right after the lockout ended. Bryant has enjoyed his time with Colorado so far, as he is hitting .350, having picked up at least 1 hit in each game, and Rockies fans have to be excited to see what this slugger can do at Coors Field where average hitters can look like All-Stars!

Kyle Freeland

Kyle Freeland nearly won the Cy Young Award back in 2018 when he won 17 games and posted a 2.85 ERA, which is completely absurd when you have to pitch half of your games at Coors Field. But since that breakout season, Freeland has seen injuries and inconsistency limit his success. Interestingly enough, Freeland has posted identical 4.33 ERA’s in the last 2 seasons, which isn’t bad all things considered, but it is a long way away from how he pitched in 2018.

The 2022 season didn’t start well for the veteran, as he got touched up by the Dodgers on opening day, allowing 5 runs, all eanred, in just 3.2 innings pitched. But to be fair to Freeland, having to pitch against that murderer’s row of a lineup that the Dodgers have, at Coors Field no less, was a tall task that I am not sure anybody else could have been much better. The Cubs are playing well right now, but they aren’t exactly ripping the cover off of the ball, and I would expect Freeland to be better today than he was last week.

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Betting Odds And Team Statistics

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Money line Total Run Line
Chicago Cubs (+100) Over 11 (-110) +1.5 (-175)
Colorado Rockies (-120) Under 11 (-110) -1.5 (+145)
Team Data Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies
Overall Record 3-2 4-1
Home Record 2-1 2-1
Away Record 1-1 2-0
Runs Per Game 4.4 5.0
Runs Against Per Game 3.27 2.54
Hits Per Game 7.20 9.20
K’s Per Game 9.2 8.6

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Prediction:

Taking the Colorado Rockies at home has been one of my most consistent and profitable bets in the last 2 seasons. Last year, the Rockies were far and away the highest value home team, as not only did they win a bunch of games, they were underdogs in many of them. And while they aren’t a dog in this game, the line is quite reasonable at just (-120). But that wasn’t always that way, as the Rockies actually opened up at (-155) and the line has only shifted due to a bunch of public action.

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Betting Trends:

Chicago Cubs
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of Chi Cubs’ last 20 games
  • Chi Cubs are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs’ last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs’ last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
  • Chi Cubs are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the National League
Colorado Rockies
  • Colorado is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
  • Colorado is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado’s last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Colorado’s last 14 games against an opponent in the National League Central Division
  • Colorado is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played in April

If you are a regular reader of my free MLB betting picks, you will know that I absolutely love to fade the betting public. The public has an uncanny ability to always get things wrong, and when I see a line move sharply like this, more often than not you are going to see me positioned on the other side. When everybody is going one way, you usually want to be going the other way. And that is what I am going to do in his game, as I will take advantage of this bad line move and take the Rockies as small home field favorites.

Is Colorado as good as their 4-1 record might suggest? Absolutely not. But the Cubs aren’t going to be a winning team this season either, so you can expect some regression from both of these teams sooner rather than later.

But as bad as the Rockies have been in the last several seasons, they are great at home and if I get chances like this one to back them as either dogs or small favorites, I am likely to bet it blind until they show me that they are no longer an elite team at Coors Field. No team in the game has a bigger home field advantage than Colorado does and that is where I will find the value in this game, with a bet on the Rockies.

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Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL

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