Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick – MLB July 5, 2022

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are back at American Family Field following a 3-run walk-off in Milwaukee. The Brewers needed 10 innings to get it done, but they followed through with a 5-2 win.

Victor Caratini had one hit on the night, and it was the most important of the night, as he connected on a 3-run bomb to end the game against Scott Effross. With the Cardinals losing, the Brewers have a three-game lead in the NL Central.

SMALL BREATHING ROOM
The Cardinals and Brewers have played each other closely throughout the regular season. Three games feel like a lot, considering how neck and neck they’ve been, but the roles could easily reverse.

Milwaukee wouldn’t have gotten the win without a strong performance from Eric Lauer. Lauer allowed just 2 hits and 1 earned run across 6 innings of work.

The same can be said for Justin Steele, who delivered a solid performance and probably should have been rewarded with a win. Steele pitched 6.2 innings with 2 hits and 1 earned run as well.

The Cubs need much more than just one win to turn their season around.

It has been a tough season for the Cubs, who are 32-48 and 14 games behind the Brewers. They’re better than the Reds, but that isn’t much of an accomplishment.

The Cubs are looking at potentially going on a three-game losing streak tonight. That’s tough after winning four in a row, including two of three to the Boston Red Sox.

Kyle Hendricks and Jason Alexander are scheduled to be in a starting role on the mound tonight. This is a veteran versus rookie matchup at American Family Field.

Head below for our free Cubs vs. Brewers prediction on July 5, 2022.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-165) +120 Over 9 (-105)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+140) -143 Under 9 (-115)
Team Data Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers
Overall Record 32-48 47-35
Away/Home Record 15-21 20-15
Batting Average .246 .235
Batting Average Away/Home .237 .234
Runs Per 9 4.38 4.71
Team ERA 4.73 3.73
Team ERA Away/Home 5.07 3.50

Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction:

The Cubs are putting Kyle Hendricks on the mound to open this contest on Tuesday night. Hendricks has been one of the more inconsistent pitchers over the last two years.

This is much different than the rest of his career from 2014 to 2020. Hendricks was one of the more consistent pitchers you could find in the majors. Not an ace, but reliable and very consistent.

He had an ERA below 4.00 for his first seven years in the major leagues.

However, Hendricks had an ERA of 4.77 with a 1.35 WHIP in 32 starts last season. He hasn’t been able to shake that campaign off and revert back to his previous numbers.

HENDRICKS HITTING A WALL?
The 32-year-old is going into Milwaukee with an ERA of 4.76 and a 1.29 WHIP through 82 innings of work. This looks a lot like the Hendricks from last year.

Hendricks is capable of doing solid work, but he has found it tough to follow up with another quality performance this season, at least consistently. He’s coming off a decent performance, though Hendricks took advantage of a bad Cincinnati lineup.

Hendricks allowed 6 hits and 2 earned runs in a 15-7 win.

He’s conceded a minimum of 4 earned runs in four of his last ten starts. Again, Hendricks is a roller coaster ride for the last two years.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends:

Cubs

  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 0-4 overall in their previous four games on a Tuesday
  • 3-10 overall in their previous ten games on the road
  • OVER is 5-2 in their previous seven games after scoring 2 or fewer runs
  • OVER is 5-2 in their previous seven games after their opponent scores 5 or more runs
  • OVER is 11-4-2 in their previous 17 games versus the Brewers

Brewers

  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 5-1 in their previous six second game of a series
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games at home
  • OVER is 8-1 in their previous nine second game of a series
  • OVER is 6-1 in their previous seven games after a win
  • OVER is 9-2 in their previous 12 games

  • The Brewers are hitting well against Hendricks in 232 at-bats. Hendricks has a long history versus this lineup, and it hasn’t been the best.

    They are hitting .320 with 7 home runs and 32 RBIs vs Hendricks.

    There are five players in the lineup that have hit at least 2 RBIs against him. Hendricks likely isn’t going to get out of this one without mistakes.

    Jason Alexander has a fine ERA for a rookie at 3.82, but a 1.70 WHIP and .384 OBA suggest he’s getting into trouble often.

    It’s caught up to Alexander recently, as he has an ERA of 7.56 and a 1.68 WHIP in his previous three starts. Alexander has only made five major league starts, and he appears to have a future but has some things to work out with his command.

    Look for runs at American Family Field, with the OVER a likely contender for a winning bet in the NL Central.

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    Cubs vs. Brewers Pick
    OVER 9
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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