Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick – MLB September 18, 2021

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are scheduled for another meeting at American Family Field on Saturday night. It feels so weird going from Miller Park, a beer company, to American Family Field, but that’s what happens when there are bidding wars for sponsoring names.

Anyway, the Brewers are coming off a big win at American Family Field last night, as they had a big 8th inning to take a 8-5 lead. Down 5-4 in the bottom of the 8th, the Brewers poured it on with 4 runs to pull away.

The Cubs’ bullpen breaking down is nothing new. They’ve found a lot of different ways to lose games this season. That’s going to happen on a bad team. The Cubs sold at the deadline, so these are the current expectations in Wrigleyville.

The Brewers have their eyes set on making a deep postseason run. This team is just so off and on that it’s going to be interesting in October. Off and on when it comes to their offense. If the Brewers employed a consistent offense, then the rest of the National League would have to look out.

They are there, but I don’t know if the Brewers are close enough. Frustratingly for Brewers’ fans, I think they are aware that they’re one big bat away from being a World Series team. That’s not to say they can’t go there with their current team, they might just need help from the Dodgers and Giants faltering next month.

The Cubs are expected to send rookie Justin Steele to the bump in Milwaukee this evening. Steele is getting some experience, and an early audition for next year in the rotation. This may not be a big month for most players on the Cubs, but for a guy like Steele, he’s being looked at under a microscope.

Steele has primarily been used as a reliever this season. They’ve given him a chance in the rotation recently to see what he can do, and has been stable enough as a rookie. He has a tough matchup with Corbin Burnes on the other side in this one. Head below for our free Cubs vs. Brewers pick on September 18, 2021.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Chicago Cubs +1.5 (+132) +292 Over 7.5 (+101)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-152) -330 Under 7.5 (-123)
Team Data Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers
Overall Record 66-82 90-57
Away/Home Record 27-46 41-31
Batting Average .230 .233
Batting Average Away/Home .227 .223
Runs Per 9 4.42 4.57
Team ERA 4.83 3.35
Team ERA Away/Home 4.99 3.87

Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction:

Justin Steele has been holding his own as a rookie with the Cubs. Steele is going into tonight with an ERA of 4.17 and a 1.39 WHIP through 17 games. He’s made six starts during that time. All of his previous six outings have been starts. Steele was going in solid form, but has hit a pothole recently.

He’s allowed 14 hits and 7 earned runs in his previous 10 innings of work. Steele gave up 4 hits and 3 earned runs against the Reds through 5 innings in a 4-3 win, and then his last start was the biggest troublespot. He’s coming off a shaky performance versus the Giants in a 6-5 loss. Steele conceded 10 hits and 5 runs in that start, as the Cubs’ bullpen couldn’t help make up for his shaky attempt.

Steele can’t afford to pitch like this with Corbin Burnes on the bump for the Brewers. Burnes has been too good in 2021. The Brewers are backed by one of the better bullpens in the majors. The bullpen is going into tonight with an ERA of 3.77 and a 1.30 WHIP for a top-10 unit in the major leagues. They helped keep the game within reach last night after Adrian Houser didn’t give his best game.


Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends:

Cubs

  • Record (Last 10): 3-7
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games versus the National League
  • 0-4 overall when their opponent scores 5 or more runs in the last game
  • OVER is 5-1 in their previous six games
  • Justin Steele ERA (Last 3): 4.20

Brewers

  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 8-0 overall in their previous eight games as a favorite in Milwaukee
  • 8-0 overall in Corbin Burnes’ previous eight starts after opponent concedes 5 or more runs in last game
  • 5-0 overall in their previous five games versus the Cubs in Milwaukee
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games versus a left-handed starter
  • Corbin Burnes ERA (Last 3): 1.89

Corbin Burnes has posted an ERA of 2.25 and a 0.91 WHIP through 25 games this season. He’s in Cy Young territory and is in great form at the moment. Burnes enters Saturday night with an ERA of 1.89 and a 0.68 WHIP in his last three starts. Opponents have recorded just a .186 OBP in his last 19 innings on the bump.

Note that in five of his last seven outings, Burnes has allowed 1 or no earned runs. He’s coming off a strong 3-0 win over the Cleveland Indians. Burnes lasted 8 innings with no hits or no runs allowed in a combined no-hitter. In his most recent start versus the Cubs, Burnes held the Cubs to 4 hits and no runs in a 10-0 win on August 11.

The Cubs have been useless at the plate against Burnes in his career. They’re hitting just .126 with a .152 OBP in 41 at-bats. The Brewers woke up last night in the 8th frame, and I’m confident that it’s going to carry over to this evening. They should have this one by at least 2 runs for a win and cover on the runline.

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Cubs vs. Brewers Pick
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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