Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick – MLB July 22, 2022

The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies open up the second half with a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies will have to go on a run to get involved in the NL East race. They aren’t completely written off, with 8.5 games not impossible to make up.

However, the Phillies have been in a similar spot in the past after the All-Star break. Close enough that a big run would put them in the mix, but they always seem to fall flat and continue playing hot and cold baseball.

Harper wants to play again this year, but his thumb injury may prevent him from getting back on the field. He is planning towards a return, though we’ve seen this often where players are shut down after some back and forth about when they’ll be back.

The Phillies are going into the second half at 49-43 and could take a run at the wildcard if the NL East doesn’t work out. That’s probably more realistic with the Braves and Mets dueling for the divisional title.

Expect the National League wildcard race to go down to the final days of the regular season.

The Cubs are just looking for progress to build on something for next season. They finished second-last in the NL Central at 35-57 through the first half.

The Chicago team from Wrigleyville has a half-game lead on the Cincinnati Reds. That was their only accomplishment going into the All-Star break, which isn’t saying much.

Second-year hurler Justin Steele is due up for the Cubs. He’s in his first full season after getting some experience with nine starts a season ago. Veteran Kyle Gibson is scheduled for the Phillies.

Head below for our free Cubs vs. Phillies prediction on July 22, 2022.

Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-175) +108 9 (-105)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+150) -130 9 (-115)
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Team Data Chicago Cubs Philadelphia Phillies
Overall Record 35-57 49-43
Away/Home Record 17-25 24-21
Batting Average .244 .246
Batting Average Away/Home .234 .250
Runs Per 9 4.22 3.31
Team ERA 4.15 4.75
Team ERA Away/Home 4.90 3.47

Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction:

Justin Steele has been efficient for an inexperienced pitcher this season. He has some things to learn, but Steele is trending in the right direction. If everything goes well, then Steele should be a fixture in the rotation for a while.

The 27-year-old is entering Citizens Bank Park with an ERA of 4.15 and a 1.41 WHIP.

Steele has to work at avoiding getting himself into jams. For the most part, he’s been able to escape damage, but he gets himself into trouble with walking batters. This is something that should be fixed with more experience.

He’ll have to be better away from Wrigley Field as well. He’s been strong at Wrigley, with an ERA of 3.29 and a 1.35 WHIP.

It’s been tough for Steele on the road this season. He’s entering Philadelphia with an ERA of 5.86 and a 1.52 WHIP.

In 31.1 innings, Steele has allowed 31 hits and 18 earned runs on the road. It’s hard to expect Steele to be in top form against the Phillies.

Even without Bryce Harper, the Phillies have done well offensively.

Philadelphia is fifth in the majors with 4.75 runs per 9 innings. They are fifth in home runs at 1.31 long balls per game.

Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 1-9
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games at Philadelphia
  • 2-9 overall in their previous 11 games versus the Phillies
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games on the road
  • 3 or fewer runs scored in their previous six games
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games on a Friday


  • Record (Last 10) 5-5
  • 5-2 overall in their previous seven games at home
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games at home versus the Cubs
  • 1 or no runs allowed in Kyle Gibson’s previous two starts
  • UNDER is 8-1 in their previous nine games versus the National League
  • UNDER is 9-2 in their previous 11 games

  • Kyle Gibson is coming off a couple of stellar starts versus the Cardinals and Marlins. He went 7 innings against the Cards with just 2 hits allowed in a 1-0 win. Gibson followed up with 4 hits and 1 earned run allowed in 6 frames for a 2-1 win.

    After a tough performance vs the Cardinals at home, he bounced back a week later at Busch Stadium.

    Gibson has posted an ERA of 3.71 and a 0.94 WHIP in his previous three starts. At Citizens Bank Park in 2022, Gibson owns a 4.01 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 53.1 innings.

    The Cubs are hitting .207 with a .211 OBP in 54 at-bats against Gibson in his career. Yan Gomes has Gibson’s number, though. If Gibson tries to work around him, he should be in good shape tonight.

    They’ve scored 3.97 runs per 9 innings on the road compared to 4.86 runs per 9 at home for the Phillies. In their most recent meeting last September, the Phillies KO’d the Cubs in a 17-8 game.

    Don’t expect that tonight, but a closer Phillies win looks likely. They should probably be a -155 favorite instead of -130.


    Cubs vs. Phillies Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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