Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick – MLB September 14, 2021

The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies open a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday night. The Phillies are coming off a tough pill to swallow against the Colorado Rockies. They lost three of four games at home, including the series finale for a 5-4 loss on Sunday. With a chance for a split, the Phillies came up short behind Aaron Nola.

Nola lasted 5.1 innings with 5 hits and 3 earned runs allowed. Nola struckout 10 batters, but it didn’t matter enough to get the Phillies a big win. With the three losses against the Rockies, the Phillies slipped to 72-71 on the season. Their postseason bid continues to get tougher after struggling over the weekend.

They find themselves 4.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the lead in the NL East. They’re only 2.5 games behind for the final wildcard, so the Phillies are still in the thick of the postseason race. However, the Phillies can’t afford to go cold over the last two weeks of the regular season.

The Phillies do not control their own destiny and need to play well along with some dominoes falling in front of them. They’re gone just 3-7 in their last ten games, so how’s that for controlling their destiny? The Phillies welcome a Cubs team that have packed it in and are looking forward to the postseason.

The Cubs sold at the trade deadline, and made their intentions known that they’re not going to be competing for a postseason seed. On a three-game losing streak going into Tuesday, the Cubs have fallen to 65-79 on the season. They recently got swept against the San Francisco Giants after a tough series at Wrigley Field.

After a lengthy homestand, the Cubs are on the road for the first time since September 1 in Minnesota. Former KBOer, Adrian Sampson, is expected to get the call on the road for the Cubs in this one. The Phillies are expected to counter with Kyle Gibson at Citizens Bank. Head below for our free Cubs vs. Phillies pick on September 14, 2021.

Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-108) +188 Over 9.5 (-104)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-112) -205 Under 9.5 (-116)
Team Data Chicago Cubs Philadelphia Phillies
Overall Record 65-79 72-71
Away/Home Record 26-43 40-31
Batting Average .233 .237
Batting Average Away/Home .232 .240
Runs Per 9 4.40 4.68
Team ERA 4.75 4.45
Team ERA Away/Home 4.81 4.15

Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction:

Adrian Sampson is looking to re-ignite his career with the Cubs after a stint in the KBO. Sampson was serviceable enough in the KBO to get another look in the major leagues. From having watched him in the KBO, Sampson wasn’t anything special, but there are a lot of bad pitchers in the majors so he still has a place in the US for depth.

So far, Sampson has looked more than just a pitcher for depth. Note, though, that Sampson has only made six appearances with two starts. He has posted an ERA of 2.20 and a 1.16 WHIP across 17 innings of work on the hill. In his most recent start, Sampson went 5 innings with 6 hits and 2 earned runs allowed in a 4-3 loss versus the Cincinnati Reds.

In his last season in the majors, he notched an ERA of 5.89 and a 1.53 WHIP across 35 appearances in 2019. Sampson didn’t catch on with another major league club after the Cubs decided to pull the cord on him. The Cubs are providing him with a big chance to get back on the map. I’m not going to get too excited about Sampson yet just because of two solid performances.

Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games
  • 0-4 overall in their previous four games versus the NL East
  • 4-0 in their previous four games after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game
  • UNDER is 5-2 in their previous seven games on the road
  • UNDER is 4-2 in their previous six games
  • Adrian Sampson ERA (Last 3): 2.89


  • Record (Last 10): 3-7
  • 7-1 overall in their previous eight games versus the Cubs
  • 5-2 in their previous seven games versus the Cubs at Citizens Bank Park
  • OVER is 6-0 in their previous six games versus the Cubs
  • OVER is 11-5 in their previous 16 games versus the NL Central
  • 8-3 overall when opponent allowed 5 or more runs in previous game
  • Kyle Gibson (Last 3): 7.20

Kyle Gibson must be feeling fortunate that he finally gets a start back at home in Philadelphia. Gibson has been a different pitcher on the road than at home this season. He has an ERA of 7.02 and a 1.74 WHIP in his previous three starts after allowing 14 hits and 11 earned runs in 10 innings of work versus the Marlins and Brewers on the road.

It was the Marlins’ start on September 3 that really got to Gibson. He gave up 8 earned runs against the Marlins, while conceding 3 earned runs in a 4-3 loss most recently against the Brewers on September 8. In his latest start in Philadelphia, Gibson gave up 3 hits and no runs through 6 innings in a 7-0 win over the Diamondbacks.

He goes into Citizens Bank Park with an ERA of 2.24 and a 1.05 WHIP through 73 innings of work at home, Conversely, Gibson has an ERA of 4.31 and a 1.39 WHIP on the road. In 18 at-bats, the Cubs are hitting .200 with a .214 OBP versus Gibson.

In an important game that they can’t pass up after struggling versus the Rockies, I like the Phillies to come through with a better performance. Meanwhile, after a long homestand for the Cubs and their season done, how much motivation are they going to have in this one? I’m siding with the Phillies to win and cover the runline.


Cubs vs. Phillies Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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