Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros ALDS Game 1 Pick – MLB October 7, 2021

The Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros open the ALDS at Minute Maid Park on Thursday in the early game. The White Sox and Astros are scheduled for the first of two ALDS games on Thursday, with the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays following in the second game.

The White Sox and Astros both got to the ALDS with a win in the AL Central and AL West. No reason for a play-in game when you win the divisional crown. The Yankees found out last night how important it is to avoid the one-game Wild Card.

The White Sox might have been the most overlooked divisional leader in the regular season. We heard a lot about the other clubs, but the White Sox just quietly went about their business under the spotlight. They were unable to catch the Astros for homefield advantage in this five-game series, though they finished with a strong record of 93-69.

The Astros had a two-game advantage on the White Sox at 95-67 in the regular season. The ‘Stros stumbled down the stretch, which opened up a window for the White Sox to jump up into second in the American League. Houston finished with a record of 4-6 in their final ten games of the season.

They did win their last two games, a 10-4 and 7-6 win over the Oakland Athletics to pull in some confidence before the curtain closed in the regular season. The White Sox came on nicely over the last two weeks.

Since September 26, the White Sox have won six of their last seven games. They closed out the season with a 5-2 loss on Sunday, but it was a meaningless matchup with the Astros clinching the No. 2 seed in the American League.

The big storyline going into Thursday is whether White Sox slugger Jose Abreu is going to play. He’s been feeling under the weather and may not be healthy enough to go in this one. The good news for the White Sox is that Abreu hasn’t tested positive for COVID and he is travelling to Houston. Head below for our free White Sox vs. Astros ALDS pick on October 7, 2021.

Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-175) +129 Over 8 (-103)
Houston Astros -1.5 (+155) -133 Under 8 (-117)
Team Data Chicago White Sox Houston Astros
Overall Record 93-69 95-67
Away/Home Record 40-41 51-30
Batting Average .253 .265
Batting Average Away/Home .249 .263
Runs Per 9 5.15 5.43
Team ERA 3.73 3.78
Team ERA Away/Home 3.93 3.60

White Sox vs. Astros Prediction:

Lance Lynn is getting the call to open the ALDS for the White Sox. The former St. Louis Cardinal and Texas Ranger was brought into Chicago to put this team over the top.

They were already good and Lynn intended on making the White Sox great. The trade has worked out well for the White Sox, but now he’s in his most important start with his new team.

Lynn is capable of delivering a strong performance in the postseason opener. He posted an ERA of 2.69 for a career-high. Lynn’s previous career-high was a 2.74 ERA in 2014.

Along with a 2.69 ERA, Lynn recorded a 1.07 WHIP for one fantastic year. Lynn has been in good form on the road with an ERA of 2.90 and a 1.21 WHIP. He would have preferred Guaranteed Rate Field, but Lynn can pitch on the road.

Lynn goes into this series with playoff experience, including a World Series ring from 2011. The stage shouldn’t be too large for Lynn. The Astros counter with a battle-tested starter of their own in Game 1.

Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros Betting Trends:

White Sox

  • Record (Last 10): 8-2
  • 6-1 overall in their previous seven games
  • 6-0 overall in their previous six games after allowing 5 or more runs
  • 4-0 overall in their previous four games after a day off
  • 6-0 overall in their previous six games versus a right-handed starter
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games versus a team with a winning record
  • Lance Lynn ERA (Last 3): 4.41


  • Record (Last 10): 4-6
  • 5-2 overall in their previous seven games at Minute Maid Park
  • 10-2 overall in their previous 12 games versus the White Sox at Minute Maid Park
  • 8-1 overall in their previous nine ALDS games at Minute Maid Park
  • 55-18 overall in their previous 73 games after a day off
  • 20-8 overall in their previous 28 games on a Thursday
  • 15-6 overall in their previous 21 games versus the White Sox
  • Lance McCullers Jr. ERA (Last 3): 3.50

Lance McCullers Jr. should put up a solid performance on Thursday night. He’s been a consistent option for the Astros in the rotation in 2021. McCullers goes into the ALDS with an ERA of 3.16 and a 1.22 WHIP across 163 innings of work.

He has been in better form on the road than at home. McCullers has posted an ERA of 2.70 and a 1.26 WHIP through 70 innings on the road. Conversely, he has a 3.51 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at home in Houston. In his last three starts, McCullers has notched a 3.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

We have two even pitching staffs and offenses in this series. The White Sox are sixth in the majors with 5.10 runs per 9 innings, while the Astros are 2nd with 5.38 runs per 9 innings. Meanwhile on the mound, the White Sox are fifth with 4.08 runs allowed per 9 innings, and the Astros sixth with 4.10 runs allowed per 9.

This should be a good series between two of the best in the American League. In cases like this you have to look for what’s the best value. The White Sox with Lynn on the bump are getting good value in Game 1. Backing Lynn at plus money is never a bad bet.


White Sox vs. Astros Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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