Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Pick – May 13th

The Cincinnati Reds are in Los Angeles Sunday for game four of a four-game series with the Dodgers. The Reds have taken the first three games of the series are looking for the sweep today in the series finale. The Reds have outscored the Dodgers 15-6 in the series and have now won five games in a row. The Dodgers season is quickly unraveling as they have lost six out of their last seven games and have the third worst record in the National League.

Starting today for the Reds is Luis Castillo (2-4 6.74 ERA), and for the Dodgers, it will be Rich Hill (1-1 7.11 ERA). The Dodgers are -147 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at seven and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 PM PST form Dodgers Stadium in Los Angeles.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are an unmitigated disaster this season. They came into the year as the odds-on favorites to win the National League and find themselves much closer to last place than first place right now. In this series against the Reds, Cincinnati came into it as the worst team in the entire major leagues, and the Reds are playing for the sweep tonight in game four. That is shocking for a team as talented as the Dodgers are this year.

I am not sure what it is going to take for the Dodgers to turn things around, but the betting public seems to think it is bound to happen any day as they have been favored in the overwhelming amount of their games this year. They are favored here again tonight despite having lost the first three games of the series. I have made a fortune betting against the Dodgers this year and wonder at what point will the betting lines reflect the fact that this is not a good team.

Starting today for the Dodgers is Rich Hill. The venerable veteran has had a terrible start to his season. After looking great in his first start of the season, the wheels have completely fallen off for Hill. In his last three starts, Hill is 0-3 and has given up fifteen earned runs in just thirteen innings. He has gotten absolutely hammered. Hill has allowed six home runs in those three starts.

Historically Hill has always been a solid arm, so this start has been confusing. But that can be said for this entire Dodgers team. They are all better than they are playing right now, but that doesn’t change the fact that they are a joke at the moment.

Starting for the Reds is Luis Castillo. The second-year guy has not had a great start to his season either. Castillo is already making his ninth start of the year and has a 2-4 record with a 6.47 ERA to show for it. He has settled down some in his last two starts. In his last eleven and two-thirds of an inning in thise last two starts, he has given up just four earned runs. Those aren’t elite numbers, but he got his ERA down from 7.85 to 6.47 where it stands now. Things appear to be slowly trending in the right direction for Castillo.

I can’t believe this total is so low with such bad pitchers starting today. I know Rich Hill isn’t that bad of a pitcher in his career, but right now, for this game? He stinks. Castillo is even worse, and I could see this game sailing past seven and a half runs very early on. Neither of these starting pitchers has been anything close to consistent and having a total so low I have no choice but to go over. And we even get a little extra juice as the over is paying out at -105 and not the standard -110. Give me the over seven and a half runs today from Los Angeles!

The Bet: Over 7.5 runs at -105


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