We had a huge day betting on Major League Baseball yesterday as we went 3-0 on our free daily betting picks, with two of those wins coming as outright money line underdogs. One of those underdog winners came when we backed the Cincinnati Reds as road underdogs, in Milwaukee, against the Brewers.
Cincinnati had Anthony DeSclafani starting on the mound, and if you haven’t seen him pitch, you might be shocked to see how nasty his stuff can be. This guy can get it to the plate at 98-99 MPH, and when he can avoid the long ball, he has ace level results.
I looked at the fact that the Brewers have been an absolute joke at the plate in terms of barreling up balls and hitting them out of the park and expected DeSclafani to shut them down. So, I backed the Reds on the road with some dog money and expected a winner.
Anthony DeSclafani: Never flashy or flamboyant, always solid. 💪
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) August 9, 2020
And that is just what we got! As expected, DeSclafani didn’t give up a home run to the weak-hitting Brewers, and completely shut them down in six innings of work that saw him allow no runs, on just two hits, and strike out six. Eugenio Suarez supplied the pop as he got off the schneid with his second homer of the year, a three-run bomb in the first inning, and the Reds coasted to their second consecutive win over Milwaukee, winning the game 4-1.
Backing underdogs in spots like this one last night are the best way to profit when betting on MLB. We will look to go back to back on underdogs in this series today, as we stay right here in Milwaukee for our daily betting pick, when we breakdown game three between the Brewers and the Reds.
Cincinnati Reds (7-8) at Milwaukee Brewers (5-7)
The Cincinnati Reds are in Milwaukee Sunday for some day baseball, looking for the sweep in game three of a three-game set with the Brewers. The Reds came into this series having lost three consecutive games but have been able to turn things around in Milwaukee, as they picked up dominating multi-run wins in games one and two of the series. Cincy will try and make it three straight wins today.
For Milwaukee, the Brewers bats have gone cold as they have scored three runs or fewer in five out of their last seven games. In this series against the Reds, Milwaukee has managed just nine hits in the first two games, and with the losses, have now fallen into fourth place in the National League Central Division. The Brewers are looking for their first home win of the season, as they are 0-4 at Miller Park entering play tonight.
Starting for the Brewers is the series finale is Brandon Woodruff (1-1 2.08 ERA), and for the Reds, it is Sonny Gray (3-0 0.96 ERA). The game total over/under is set at seven runs. The Brewers are -120 home field favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 11:10 AM PST from Miller Park in Milwaukee.
This series against Milwaukee is just what the doctor ordered for the Reds. Cincy has been sluggish to start the season, as they have had a couple of their best bats out with injuries, and the guys that have been playing, haven’t been hitting. But in this series, the Reds have finally broken out the bats as they have scored twelve runs, including home runs from Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos, and Matt Davidson.
It was good to see Suarez and Davidson finally make hard contact, as both guys have been struggling, and the Reds badly need them to start hitting for power if they want to keep pace with the streaking Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. We all know how great this Reds starting rotation can be, if the bats can hold up their end of the bargain, this team is going to win a lot of games.
Sonny Gray (3-0 0.96 ERA)
Sonny Gray is on another level right now. This guy is destroying opposing hitters, and through three games, joins his teammate Trevor Bauer, as the prohibitive favorites for the National League Cy Young Award. Gray is 3-0, with a blink and you will miss it 0.96 ERA and has 28 strikeouts in 18.2 innings pitched.
Gray has pitched into the sixth inning or later in all three starts and has been his pitch count increase every game. I would expect that the Reds are going to leave him in as long as he is productive tonight, as he seems to be fully stretched out at this point, surpassing the 100-pitch count in his last start for the first time this season.
In five starts against Milwaukee last year, Gray was lights out as he posted a 2.45 ERA and had 40 K’s in 29.1 innings worked. The 40 strikeouts against Milwaukee last year were the most K’s he had against any team in 2019.
This Milwaukee Brewers team is in trouble. They are sinking down the standings in a hurry, and they just can’t seem to score enough runs to stay competitive right now. In seven of their twelve games this season, they have scored three runs or less, and while their starting rotation has been good enough to keep them competitive most nights, they just aren’t getting the timely hitting that they need to break through and string together some wins.
Christian Yelich has been about the most consistent hitter in the National League in his time with Milwaukee. He won the NL MVP in 2018 and was well on his way to winning the award again last year, before getting hurt late in the season. His average stats line in two years with the Brewers has been a .320 batting average with 40+ homers and 100+ RBI.
That makes his slow start to this season even more perplexing, as he just isn’t hitting the baseball. Entering play today, Yelich is hitting just .114 with an anemic on-base percentage of .235 and is slugging .341. Milwaukee has to get Yelich hitting if they want any shot of getting back into contention in the NL.
Brandon Woodruff (1-1 2.08 ERA)
It hasn’t all been bad for Milwaukee so far in 2020, as Brandon Woodruff is quickly emerging as one of the more consistent starters in the league. Woodruff has made three starts and has been solid in each game.
His 2.08 ERA is amongst the league leaders, and he has 21 K’s in 17.1 innings. The problem for Woodruff has been run support. The Brewers are just 1-2 in his three starts this season and have scored him just five total runs of support. It is hard to win on the mound if your team never scores any runs, and it has been a frustrating start to the season for Woodruff.
Who Do I Like?
I have emerged as a bit of a Milwaukee Brewers hater so far in 2020. It seems I am fading them a lot right now, as I bet against them in both of the first two games of this series, as well as a couple of times in their last series against the Chicago White Sox. I just don’t see how they can consistently be favored over teams that are playing better baseball than they are.
That’s not to say that I will be betting against the Brew Crew all season long, but right now, this team can’t hit, and I am shocked to see them favored against a guy like Sonny Gray that is blowing the doors off of teams that can actually hit the baseball. As long as the Brewers are struggling badly at the plate, and I can fade them getting dog money, I am going to keep looking for ways to position myself on the other side of Milwaukee.
I hate to bet against Brandon Woodruff, as I do expect that he will be strong tonight. But Sonny Gray is pitching his brains out right now. He is barely allowing baserunners, let alone giving up runs. I expect Gray to give us six or seven dominant innings tonight, and while runs are going to be tough to get on Woodruff, I see the Reds finding a way to plate enough runs to walk away with the series sweep today. Give me the Cincinnati Reds today, again as road underdogs in Milwaukee, as they sweep the Brewers!