Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets MLB Pick – August 7th

Ouch, what a bad beat we took yesterday. We backed the Philadelphia Phillies as major underdogs on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks. I really liked getting to back a first-place team like the Phillies with an ace like Jake Arrieta on the mound, getting a bunch of dog money. The game went according to plan most of the way as Arrieta was dominant. All told, Arrieta pitched eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits along the way.

The game hit the bottom of the ninth inning with the Phillies leading 2-0. Philly brought in their closer Seranthony Dominguez, and he immediately got lit up. Dominguez got touched up right away and quickly allowed the DBacks to tie the game up. The Phillies were able to get Dominguez back out of the game quick enough to preserve the tie and send the game into extra frames. But the DBacks eventually took the win on a David Peralta walk-off home run in the bottom of the fourteenth inning.

This is my least favorite way to lose a bet. I don’t mind if I make a pick that was just completely off base and lose. But when you nail almost every factor of the game only to see the closer come in and give the game away, it hurts, especially when we were in line for a big dog money payout. What can you do, we will shake it off and move on today as we look at the game between the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets.

The Cincinnati Reds are in New York City Tuesday for game two of a three-game series with the Mets. This game features two teams that are out of contention at this point of the season and are just playing out the stick on what has been a long and disappointing year. The Reds, while playing fairly well after a very slow first month of the season, unloaded some major talent at the trade deadline and are expected to really fall off here down the stretch. The same could be said about the Mets, as winning likely won’t be a major part of the equation the rest of the way out for New York.

Starting tonight for the Reds is Sal Romano (6-9 5.12 ERA), and for the Mets, it is Jason Vargas (2-7 8.23 ERA). The Mets are small -108 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM PST from Citi Field in New York City.

There just isn’t much good that can be said about Jason Vargas this year. After making the All-Star team last season with the Kansas City Royals, he has been a complete and utter disappointment this season for the Mets. Vargas has not pitched more than five innings in any of his eleven starts and has a sky-high ERA of 8.23. The Mets are 2-9 in games where he starts this season. In fact, Vargas has pitched fewer than five innings in six of those starts, that is pretty brutal when you are struggling to even make it out of the fourth inning as a starter.

Cincinnati starter Sal Romano has had similar struggles this year for the Reds. Romano is just 6-9 with a 5.12 ERA. That is the highest qualified ERA in the National League right now.  The second-year right hander just hasn’t been good at all this year. He has had similar struggles this season as Vargas as he just doesn’t get very deep into games. Romana has gone six innings, or fewer, in twenty of his twenty-two starts this season.

Sometimes when I see a number, I just don’t understand it. That is what happened when I looked at this game total of just nine runs this morning. Sal Romano has been the worst starting pitcher in the National League this season. Not a bad pitcher, the worst. At least as far as qualified pitchers go, that have actually pitched all season long.

And Jason Vargas has been worse! Way worse. So, you can see why I was surprised to see the total as so low. And then imagine my excitement when the morning action actually moved this line down even further, to where it stands now at just eight and a half runs.

I understand that both the Mets and Reds are both going to be without a couple of their best hitters. The Mets lost Cespedes to injury and the Reds lost Duvall to a trade. And that both of these lineups weren’t all that good, to begin with. But Jason Vargas might just give up nine runs by himself! And if not, Sal Romano seems to always give up several runs as well. I don’t just like the over in this game, I love it.

So, I will take the over eight and a half runs and hope that Vargas and Romano are up to their usual tricks and both get lit up tonight. Give me the over eight and a half runs at -116 tonight in New York City!

The Bet: Over 8.5 runs at -116


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