We picked up another win last night when we took the over seven and a half runs in the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Cincinnati Reds game. The number just didn’t make any sense to me as both starting pitchers had an ERA of above seven runs, yet the over-under was just seven and a half, the lowest total on the board for the day. When both starters are clearly capable of giving up enough runs themselves to put the game over, it feels like a great spot.
Even though the game ended up only going over by half of a run they didn’t make us sweat it out too bad. We had this number covered by the seventh inning, and two full innings for them to play add-on and they didn’t, but we still cashed our ticket. I don’t bet on totals that often as those numbers are generally going to be very sharp, but yesterday I felt I saw value in two-game totals and pulled the trigger and went 2-0.
You need to always look at the complete betting landscape for the day when you make your bets. That could include money line bets, run lines, game totals, or even reverse run lines and first five type bets. The books offer many different betting options, and in order to find the best value you must be able to know and understand everything that they offer and make it part of your arsenal.
The Cincinnati Reds are in San Francisco Monday night for game one of a three-game series with the Giants. Don’t look now but the Reds just might be the hottest team in baseball as they have won six straight games and just swept the Dodgers in a four-game series in LA. The Giants won last night 5-0 against the Pittsburg Pirates to snap what was a six-game losing streak.
Starting tonight for the home team Giants is Chris Stratton (3-3 4.60 ERA), and for the Reds, it is Sal Romano (2-3 3.83 ERA). The Giants are -144 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight runs. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM PST from AT&T Park in San Francisco.
What has gotten into this Cincinnati Reds team lately? Before this recent winning streak, they held the worst record in all of baseball, so it was very hard to see a run like this coming. But this is baseball, and it is filled with variance and betting on bad teams that get hot, can be very profitable. The Reds were underdogs in each of their last six games that they won, and they are underdogs against here tonight against the Giants.
Starting tonight for Cincinnati is Sal Romano. Romano got off to a little bit of a slow start to his season but has been getting better with each start. The second-year right-hander has seen his ERA drop after his last five starts and the Reds have won three out of his last four games. Romano is a guy that the rebuilding Reds hope can turn into a long-term starter for them. At just twenty-four years of age, he is off to a great start and seems to get better every time out. Romano has not given up more than two earned runs in any of his last five starts.
Giants starter Chris Stratton is having the exact opposite start to his season as Romano. After his first five starts of the year, Stratton 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA. But the wheels have fallen off recently for Stratton as in his last three starts he has pitched twelve innings and has given up fourteen earned runs. He has seen his ERA balloon to nearly five runs during that stretch.
This is a game where I am going to back the heat. You have a team that is hot at the moment in Cincinnati, that has won six straight games and are playing very well right now. They are matched up with a Giants team that has been up and down all season long and had lost six straight before winning last night.
The starting pitching matchup is the same story. Romero is pitching at his best right now, and Stratton has completely fallen apart over the last several weeks. Baseball is a weird sport. The worst teams in the league are going to win about 40% of their games. So, even the bad teams are going to get hot and put together winning streaks. Being able to recognize these streaks early on and take advantage of backing them as underdogs can be very profitable.
I think this Reds hot streak is likely about to run out of steam. They just don’t have much talent, and they aren’t going to just magically turn into a winning team. But I do really like them in this spot tonight getting a nice big piece of dog money. Give me the somehow red-hot Reds tonight on the road in game one at +124