Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Pick – Major League Baseball April 30, 2022

The Colorado Rockies host the Cincinnati Reds tonight in game 2 of a 3-game series. The Rockies clubbed 14 hits last night in the series opener, plating 10 runs, and blowing the Reds out 10-4, to take the series lead. Not many people outside of Denver are giving the Rockies much of a chance to contend in the loaded NL West Division this season, but with a winning record, and offseason acquisitions of guys like Kris Bryant, Chad Kuhl, and Jose Iglesias, this team is starting to believe in themselves.

For Cincinnati, Reds fans knew this was going to be a rebuilding year after they traded away Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the Seattle Mariners just before the start of the regular season, but I am not sure that anybody expected them to play as poorly as they have so far this season. No matter how you slice it, the Reds are undeniable the worst team in the majors right now, as they have the fewest wins, the most losses, and their run differential of -55 is downright embarrassing.

This line opened with the Rockies laying (-170) but has been steadily on the move towards the Reds ever since, and the current line has the Rockies at (-143) as small home field favorites. The game total is 11 runs with a starting pitching matchup between youngster Connor Overton and veteran right-hander, Chad Kuhl. First pitch is scheduled for 5:10 PM PST from Coors Field in Denver, Colorado.

Cincinnati Reds (3-17)

To say that the Cincinnati Reds are bad, would be a massive understatement, as this team isn’t just bad, they are awful. The Reds somehow managed to split their season-opening series with the Atlanta Braves at 2 games apiece, but since then, it has been basically all heartbreak for Cincy. The Reds have lost 15 out of their last 16 games, and in most games, they aren’t just losing, they are getting blown completely out.

Of those recent 15 losses, every single one of them has come by multiple runs. On their active 4-game losing streak, they have a run differential of -13, and they are allowing a whopping 8.5 runs per game. When you look at the season as a whole, the Red’s team ERA of over 6 runs is the worst in the game by nearly a full run over the next closest team, the Pittsburgh Pirates.

This team didn’t have a lot of talent to start out, but injuries have decimated them even further, as they are without several key players. Justin Dunn, Max Schrock, and Daniel Duarte are all done for the season with injuries and the Reds starting rotation is in shambles. Staters Mike Minor, Luis Castillo, and Nick Lodolo are all on the IL, which opens the door for Connor Overton to make his season debut tonight against the Rockies.

Connor Overton

Connor Overton made his Big League debut last season pitching in relief for the Toronto Blue Jays. He eventually ended up in Pittsburgh late in the year, where he got his first chance to start for the Pirates, as they were well out of contention. Things did not go well for Overton as he posted an 8.31 ERA in 5 appearances for Pittsburgh.

Overton had a shot at making the Reds opening day roster, but did not pitch well in spring training, and only gets the chance to pitch today, as 4 of the projected 5 Reds starters coming into this season are on the shelf. I do have to give Overton some credit though, as he has pitched well in the minors this season, but with a career that spans just 15.1 innings pitched and an ERA of nearly 5 runs, I can’t imagine he is going to enjoy his time tonight pitching in the hardest to pitch ballpark in the game.

Today’s Starting Pitching Matchup

Connor Overton

  • (0-0)
  • 0.00 ERA
  • 0.0 K/9 Ratio
  • 0.0 WHIP
Chad Kuhl

  • (2-0)
  • 1.10 ERA
  • 7.2 K/9 Ratio
  • 0.918 WHIP

Colorado Rockies (11-9)

Last year, I hammered on the Colorado Rockies at home, as they were shockingly excellent when playing at Coors Field, despite being a team that finished with a bad overall record. This year, the Rockies have again been good at home with a 7-4 record, and going back to the start of last season, only the Giants and Dodgers have a better home field record in the National League than the Rockies do.

The Rockies have yet to lose a home series this season, and that winning percentage of .598 since the start of 2021, when playing in Denver, is elite. If the Rockies got to play all of their games in Colorado, they would easily be a playoff team. Sometimes home/road splits are just variance playing itself out, but with Coors Field being the most unique playing environment in all of baseball, the Rockies have clearly built their team to play in that thin air of the Rocky Mountains and it has paid off.

Chad Kuhl

When the Rockies signed Chad Kuhl to a free agent contract in the offseason, it wasn’t a move that many expected to be a needle mover for Colorado. Kuhl slotted in at the back of their rotation and after 5 seasons and lots of injuries in Pittsburgh, Kuhl had very limited expectations. Those meager expectations have made what he has been able to do this season that much more impressive, as Kuhl has been fantastic.

Kuhl has made 3 starts and has allowed just 2 earned runs in 16.1 innings worked. That is good for a blink, and you will miss it, 1.10 ERA. The fact that Kuhl has faced teams like the Rangers, Phillies, and Tigers, all teams that can swing the bat, has me wondering if Kuhl is going to be one of the biggest breakout players of the year this season in the National League.

Kuhl tends to pitch to contact and force a lot of ground balls, which is exactly what you want to do at Coors Field. We all know that a lazy fly ball at Coors Field might end up in the stands and keeping the ball on the ground is a key for any pitcher working in that thin air. In his lone start this season at home, Kuhl dazzled, pitching 6 shutout innings against the Phillies, forcing 8 ground balls and striking out 4, on a very efficient 68 pitches.

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Odds And Team Statistics

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Money line Total Run Line
Cincinnati Reds (+132) Over 11 (-110) +1.5 (-143)
Colorado Rockies (-143) Under 11 (-110) -1.5 (+123)
Team Data Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies
Overall Record 3-17 11-9
Home Record 1-7 7-4
Away Record 2-10 4-5
Runs Per Game 6.40 5.60
Earned Runs Against Per Game 6.04 4.65
Hits Per Game 10.0 9.6
K’s Per Game 5.7 9.5

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Prediction:

If you are someone that is a daily ready of my free MLB picks for TheSportsGeek, you will know that I love nothing more than to fade the betting public. The public has an almost uncanny ability to always get things wrong, and when I see a game where everyone is on one side, you are almost always going to find me on the other side.

That is what I am going to do in this one with a play on the Rockies. Normally I have some inclination as to how the books tricked the public into jumping on the wrong side in a game, but in this matchup, I honestly have no idea what everyone likes in the Reds. They get blown out every time that they play, and with Connor Overton getting the nod, I could see the Rockies hitting double-digit runs again like they did last night in the series opener.

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Trends:

Cincinnati Reds
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games.
  • Cincinnati is 1-15 SU in their last 16 games.
  • Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against Colorado.
  • Cincinnati is 0-8 SU in their last 8 games on the road.
  • Cincinnati is 1-13 SU in their last 14 games against an opponent in the National League.
Colorado Rockies
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado’s last 5 games.
  • Colorado is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado’s last 5 games against Cincinnati.
  • Colorado is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado’s last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.

We already talked about how Chad Kuhl likes to force ground balls and why that makes him an ideal pitcher to pitch at Coors Field, and while I don’t want to put too much emphasis on Overton’s very limited Big League experience, he hasn’t been a guy that pitches to contact and gets guys to keep the ball on the ground. In his MLB career, Overton has gotten 58 hitters out and only 15 of those came on ground balls.

That is playing with fire against a team like the Rockies that leads the majors in team batting average at .264 and leads the National League in slugging at .428 and OPS at .776. Expect Overton to get lit up, and even if he somehow manages to survive, he won’t be pitching the entire game, and when I see that the Reds bullpen has a combined ERA of 4.38, 2nd to last in the National League, I know that the Rockies are going to score a bunch of runs tonight.

I won’t pretend that Chad Kuhl has turned into Sandy Koufax overnight, as, despite his hot start, I don’t think he has done enough yet to prove to me that he has turned the corner. But he is still just 29 years old, which suggests that his best years could still be ahead of him.

We have seen before that when a player escapes a losing franchise like Pittsburgh, they sometimes play much better with the change of location and you certainly can’t deny how well Kuhl has pitched so far in his short stint with the Rockies. I will pencil Kuhl in for 6 quality innings as he coasts to a winning decision behind an offensive explosion from his hard-hitting lineup! Give me the Rockies as home field favorites in his one, I’ll call it an 11-3 final score with the Rockies winning going away in blowout fashion.

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Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Pick
Colorado Rockies
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL

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