Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Pick – Major League Baseball May 1, 2022

The Cincinnati Reds are hoping to avoid the sweep today as they play game 3 of this 3-game series with the Colorado Rockies. The Reds are suffering through one of the worst starts in recent memory, as between cost-cutting trades and injuries, the Reds just haven’t been able to stay competitive in most games. Cincy rides a 5-game losing streak into play today, and going back to early April, the Reds have lost 16 of their last 17 games.

For Colorado, the Rockies have continued to play well at home, as their 8-4 record at Coors Field this season has them tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for the most home wins in the National League. Colorado is looking to finish off this sweep today before welcoming the Washington Nationals to town for a 3-game set on Tuesday.

Despite many people doubting their ability to contend in the loaded NL West Division, the Rockies are playing quality baseball, with a winning record at 12-9, and entering play today, they are just 2 games back of the first place San Francisco Giants.

This line opened up with the Rockies as significant home field favorites, laying (-172), but the early action has mostly come in on the Reds, shifting this line 20-points towards the home team, with the line now sitting at Colorado (-152). The game total is a Denver special at 10.5 runs with a starting pitching matchup between the Reds Reiver Sanmartin and the Rockies Kyle Freeland. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 PM PST from Coors Field in Denver, Colorado.

Cincinnati Reds (3-18)

Things are quickly going from bad to worse for the Cincinnati Reds as they are spiraling out of control. At this point, the only real question for the Reds management is whether or not they are going to trade away more pieces and dump more salary.

Cincy has moved guys like Sonny Grey, Trevor Bauer, Jesse Winker, and Eugenio Suarez in the last couple of years as they build towards the future, and while there aren’t too many guys left on this roster that have significant trade value, I would think that everyone on this roster is for sale.

Yesterday, the Reds picked up a moral victory, as their loss to the Rockies was the first game that they didn’t lose by multiple runs in weeks. You know things are bad when losing close is about as close as you are ever going to get to winning. But that is where this team is right now, as their run differential of -56 is nearly a full run per game worse than any other team in the game.

Reiver Sanmartin

Reds starter Reiver Sanmartin could potentially be a guy that is young enough to still be around when the Reds finish what is sure to be a multi-year rebuild, as he is still only 26-years-old. The native of Colombia made his Big League debut late last season and pitched really well, making 2 starts and posting a 2-0 record and 1.54 ERA. He hit spring training this season competing for a spot in the starting rotation and pitched well enough in camp to earn his spot on this roster.

This guy might be a respectable pitcher at some point in his career, but after toiling in the minors for 6 seasons, he looks to be someone that should probably still be pitching in triple-A, not the show, as he has been dreadfully bad to start this season. Sanmartin has made 4 starts and in 3 of them, he got obliterated.

Interestingly enough, he pitched great in LA, against the Dodgers, but in his other 3 outings, he has worked a combined 10.2 innings and has gotten clobbered for a whopping 19 earned runs, on 19 hits, and 7 walks! In his last start, he had the worst start of his young career, getting lit up by the San Diego Padres for 9 runs, all earned, in just 3 innings pitched. Pitching at Coors Field is never easy and with how poorly Reiver Sanmartin has pitched this season, he could be in for a very long afternoon.

Today’s Starting Pitching Matchup

Reiver Sanmartin

  • (0-3)
  • 10.91 ERA
  • 5.7 K/9 Ratio
  • 1.85 WHIP
Kyle Freeland

  • (0-3)
  • 6.16 ERA
  • 8.1 K/9 Ratio
  • 1.68 WHIP

Colorado Rockies (12-9)

The Rockies lineup certainly seemed to miss Kris Bryant’s bat yesterday, as Bryant was placed on the 10-day IL prior to first pitch with a back injury. The Rockies managed just 4 runs without his bat in the middle of their lineup, and it was just enough to get them the win.

Right now, they are calling it back soreness, which shouldn’t be all that bad, but losing your top power bat is never an easy pill to swallow. But luckily for Rockies fans, just about everybody in this lineup has been hitting the ball well this year for Colorado.

Colorado has the top team batting average in MLB, and they are seeing some strong efforts at the plate from several key players. Randall Grichuk is hitting .333, Jose Iglesias is hitting .322, and C.J. Cron’s 7 home runs and 19 RBI are both tops in the National League. Colorado would much rather have Bryant in the lineup today than play without him, but they just might have enough firepower left in the lineup to carry them while Bryant is on the mend.

Kyle Freeland

In his rookie season, Kyle Freeland finished 7th in the NL Rookie of the Year Award voting. In his 2nd year, he went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA and nearly took home Cy Young Award honors, finishing in 4th place when all the votes were counted. At age 25, he was looking like a future superstar. But since that breakout season in 2018, Freeland has mostly been mediocre.

Freeland posted identical 4.33 ERA’s in both 2020 and 2021 and while those numbers are more than respectable for a guy that has to make half of his starts at Coors Field, it is a far cry from the level of production that most people expected from him after his first couple of seasons in the league. This season, Freeland got off to a slow start, but has pitched better recently.

In his first 2 outings of the year, Freeland worked just 9 combined innings and gave up 10 earned runs. But in his last 2 starts, he has been much better, pitching 5 innings in both starts, while giving up a total of just 3 earned runs and striking out 10. Freeland isn’t going to be a guy that is going to blow you away with his raw stuff, but he is a serviceable middle of the rotation inning eater and I expect him to pitch well against this depleted Reds lineup today at home.

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Odds And Team Statistics

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Money line Total Run Line
Cincinnati Reds (+140) Over 10.5 (-110) +1.5 (-135)
Colorado Rockies (-152) Under 10.5 (-110) -1.5 (+115)
Team Data Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies
Overall Record 3-18 12-9
Home Record 1-7 8-4
Away Record 2-11 4-5
Runs Per Game 6.40 5.90
Earned Runs Against Per Game 5.97 4.57
Hits Per Game 9.90 9.60
K’s Per Game 6.10 9.10

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Prediction:

Yesterday I wrote up the game between the Rockies and the Reds and mentioned that I couldn’t at all comprehend why the public was backing the Reds. Today, we are seeing a carbon copy of yesterday’s action, as the Rockies opened up as favorites, only to see the public jump on the road team and drop the line 20 points. I took advantage of that bad line move yesterday and I am going to take advantage of it again today, as it makes absolutely zero sense that anyone likes the Reds in this game.

Maybe the casual betting public hasn’t noticed that the Reds are the worst team in baseball by a huge margin? There isn’t a metric out there that doesn’t tell us that the Reds aren’t the worst team in the game.

They have the fewest wins, the most losses, and the worst run differential. They are dead last in MLB in team ERA, nearly a full run worse than the next closest team, and their team batting average of .204 is a joke. The Reds aren’t bad, they are awful.

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Trends:

Cincinnati Reds
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games.
  • Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games.
  • Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against Colorado.
  • Cincinnati is 0-9 SU in their last 9 games on the road.
  • Cincinnati is 1-14 SU in their last 15 games against an opponent in the National League.
Colorado Rockies
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado’s last 6 games.
  • Colorado are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado’s last 9 games against Cincinnati.
  • Colorado are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado’s last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.

Despite being an awful team, the action is still coming in on the Reds. If you have been reading my daily free MLB picks this season for TheSportsGeek, you will know that I absolutely love to fade the betting public. To quote yesterday’s article, “the public has an almost uncanny ability to always get things wrong.”

Until the public stops giving me a discount every day to fade the Reds, I am likely to fade them every single day. I never want to overreact to a small sample size of data, but we are going on the 4th consecutive week of the Reds not even trying to win baseball games and they should be far bigger underdogs than they have been in most of these games.

If Cincy continues on their current pace, they could end up as an all-time terrible team. Throw in the fact that the Rockies have been an elite home team going all of the way back to the start of last season, and I almost can’t believe that I can take Colorado at such a reasonable price. Expect Reiver Sanmartin to get lit up again, and for the Rockies to take an early lead and pull away late for a no-sweat victory.

The Rockies bats were held in check most of the day yesterday, but the Reds bullpen has been used and abused already in this series, getting touched up for 8 runs in the 2 games. When Cincy has to call on the ‘pen again today after Sanmartin gets punished, this could very well end up being a game that gets ugly.

I am never a big fan of taking a home team on the run line, but if there were ever a spot for it, it would be this game, as this one looks to be a blowout. I will take the lower variance route and back the Rockies on the money line, at a better price than I deserve, as they sweep the Reds out of town in a laugher.

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Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Pick
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Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL

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