Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick – MLB May 3, 2022

The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers clash for the first of three games at American Family Field. It has been a disaster of a campaign for the Reds. They are an embarrassing 3-19 going into tonight and are showing no signs of improvement.

The Reds go into Milwaukee on a six-game losing streak after getting swept by the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies. They have just one win against the Cardinals on April 24 over their previous 18 attempts.

In most instances, the Reds aren’t even coming close. In their last start, the Rockies blasted the Reds for a 10-1 final at Coors Field. Reds’ starter, Reiver Sanmartin, lasted just 0.2 innings before getting pulled.

Sanmartin was tagged for 6 hits and 6 earned runs in an ugly effort. The same could be said for the rest of this team. Nothing is working for the Reds right now no matter if you look at their starters, relievers, and bats.

No, they will not be this bad right through the summer. The Diamondbacks went on an epic losing skid last year and finished at 52-110. The worst teams in the majors are usually good for at least 50 wins still.

Vladimir Gutierrez was scheduled to start tonight, but scratched in favor of Tyler Mahle. Mahle will get the call for the Reds, as he tries to stop the bleeding. Brandon Woodruff, who has had struggles of his own thus far, goes for the Brewers at home.

Head below for our free Reds vs. Brewers prediction on May 3, 2022.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-115) +190 Over 7 (-105)
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-105) -230 Under 7 (-115)
Team Data Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers
Overall Record 3-19 15-8
Away/Home Record 2-12 7-4
Batting Average .199 .216
Batting Average Away/Home .183 .220
Runs Per 9 4.28 3.88
Team ERA 3.06 4.23
Team ERA Away/Home 2.64 4.89

Reds vs. Brewers Prediction:

The Reds aren’t even getting that much from Tyler Mahle, who they depended on to be a leader in the rotation this season.

There’s still plenty of time for Mahle to get his act together, and I’m sure he will, but he’s falling victim to this losing attitude in Cincinnati right now as well.

Mahle is coming off his best full season in the major leagues, as he completed 33 games with an ERA of 3.75 and a 1.23 WHIP. He was expected to build on that season and play a leading role for the Reds in 2022.

Mahle hasn’t gotten off to an ideal start for his expectations this season. It’s hard to pitch with much confidence on this team that has much bigger problems than Mahle.

He is going into Tuesday night with an ERA of 6.45 and a 1.66 WHIP. Opponents have recorded a .366 OBP versus Mahle through 23 innings.

He started off nicely against the Braves, as he limited them to no earned runs in 5 innings. However, Mahle has posted an 8.10 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in 14 innings of work.

The Brewers have a win in five of their last six games, but couldn’t complete the sweep against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday in a 2-0 loss. They’ve had some decent numbers versus Mahle, with a .248 batting average and 14 RBIs with 5 home runs.

Mahle has not held up better on the road this season. He goes into Milwaukee with a 7.27 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in two starts on the road.

As a team, the pitching staff has a 6.08 ERA and 1.62 WHIP as visitors. Depending on run support on this team isn’t something that Mahle should expect.

This looks like a good spot for Brandon Woodruff to bounce into form. He hasn’t been at his best, but should handle an anemic Reds offense at home.

The Reds are 29th in the majors, with a team batting average of .201 and 3.24 runs per 9 innings. They are particularly bad on the road, with a .183 batting average and 2.64 runs per 9 innings.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends:

Reds

  • Record (Last 10): 1-10
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games after a day off
  • 5-21 overall in their previous 26 games on the road
  • 0-6 overall in their first game of a series
  • 16-35 overall in their previous 51 games as an underdog
  • OVER is 5-1 in their previous six games

Brewers

  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games after a loss
  • 6-2 overall in their previous eight games at home
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games versus the Reds
  • UNDER is 8-1 in their previous nine games versus the Reds at home

Brandon Woodruff goes into this one with an ERA of 5.30 and a 1.34 WHIP. Despite the slow start this season, Woodruff has been in great form at home.

He has gone 11 innings at American Family Field with no runs allowed and a 0.64 WHIP. His opponents have a .175 OBP against Woodruff in Milwaukee.

Expect Woodruff to look good against this bad Cincinnati offense. The Reds are eventually going to wake up and go on some form of a small run, but it likely doesn’t start in Milwaukee tonight.

The Brewers to cover the runline at -105 looks like a good bet in Milwaukee.

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Reds vs. Brewers Pick
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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