Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick – MLB May 4, 2022

The Cincinnati Reds will try to notch only their fourth win this season tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers at American American Family Field. It was another loss for the Reds last night, as they continue to embarrass themselves.

The Reds have regressed to 3-20 on the season and 12.5 games behind the Brewers for the lead in the NL Central. The Arizona Diamondbacks went on a similar run last year, but this was deeper into the season, so it wasn’t quite as noticeable.

Cincinnati has shown nothing this season, as they are in danger of going on a seven-game losing streak and losses in 18 of their previous 19 games. There have not been many positives to find on the bump or at the plate.

Positives that they expected haven’t come to fruition. For example, Tyler Mahle, got into trouble again last night in a 6-3 final. Willy Adames stayed hot, as he connected on a 3-run home run in the bottom of the 3rd to break up a 0-0 deadlock.

Brandon Woodruff wasn’t perfect after giving up 2 runs in the next inning, but finished with respectable work through 5.2 innings. The Brewers are 16-8 on the season with a 2.5-game advantage on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Milwaukee has a win in six of their last seven going into Wednesday night. Freddy Peralta will look to keep on track following a slow start and continue the winning ways for the Brewers in Milwaukee. Cincinnati is expected to counter with Vladimir Gutierrez.

Head below for our free Reds vs. Brewers prediction on May 4, 2022.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (+110) +220 Over 7.5 (-125)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-130) -270 Under 7.5 (+105)
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Team Data Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers
Overall Record 3-20 16-8
Away/Home Record 2-13 8-4
Batting Average .198 .216
Batting Average Away/Home .183 .218
Runs Per 9 3.06 4.33
Team ERA 6.17 3.01
Team ERA Away/Home 6.05 2.58

Reds vs. Brewers Prediction:

The Reds don’t do anything well and are spiraling down the toilet fast. Joey Votto, who has been slumping with the rest of the team, is on the COVID-19 list. The 38-year-old might be nearing his expiration date in the major leagues.

Votto can’t save the Reds from tanking this time. The Reds have far too many holes and Votto isn’t going to help at this stage in his career.

Vladimir Gutierrez had his start pushed back today, with Mahle taking over yesterday. Mahle receiving the starting nod yesterday didn’t help. We’ll see if Gutierrez can do any better this evening.

Gutierrez isn’t off to a quick start like the rest of the team. He’s struggling like his teammates.

He is going into tonight with an ERA of 7.40 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP through 17 innings on the bump. Gutierrez is coming off his worst performance against the San Deigo Padres.

The Padres got to the second-year pitcher for 5 hits and 6 earned runs in 4 innings. After a rookie campaign he could build on, it hasn’t been a smooth start for Gutierrez in 2022.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 1-9
  • 5-22 overall in their previous 27 games on the road
  • 1-10 overall in their previous 11 games on a Wednesday
  • 3-13 overall in their previous 16 games after their opponent scores 5 or more runs
  • 6-20 overall in their previous 26 games as an underdog on the road
  • 6-20 overall in the second game of a series


  • Record (Last 10): 8-2
  • 6-1 overall in their previous seven games
  • 7-2 overall in their previous nine games at home
  • 6-1 in their previous seven games at home versus a right-handed starter
  • 61-27 overall in their previous 88 games after a win
  • 4-0 overall in their previous first game of as series

Freddy Peralta has been uncharacteristically bad this season so far. He is going into Wednesday night with an ERA of 5.00 and a 1.33 WHIP.

Despite the slow start, Peralta is showing signs of bouncing back. Peralta was sharp in his last two attempts going into Wednesday.

Peralta allowed 3 hits and 1 earned run against the Phillies after getting nailed for 6 earned runs in 3 innings versus the Cardinals. He followed up in his last start with 3 hits and no runs allowed in a 3-2 win over the Pirates.

The Reds have been finding it tough to scratch runs across the plate. They are 28th in scoring and 29th with a team batting average of .200.

Cincinnati is hitting .192 against Peralta across 36 at-bats. It hasn’t gone well against Peralta in his career, either. As long as the Reds continue showing no signs of caring, continue to fade them on the runline.


Reds vs. BrewersPick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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