Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Pick – MLB July 14, 2022

The New York Yankees welcome the Cincinnati Reds back to Yankee Stadium for the third and final game of this series in the Bronx. The Yankees didn’t give their best effort to open, as they dropped a 4-3 final on Tuesday night.

The offense didn’t swing well with Graham Ashcraft on the hill for the series opener. Ashcraft was in decent shape, with 7 hits and 3 earned runs allowed in 5 innings of work. Mike Minor looked like his vintage form last night, but it wasn’t enough.

Minor hasn’t been at his best this season, but he delivered a nice one last night. He allowed 1 earned run across 4 innings. That’s all you can ask for from him.

The Yankees were able to take advantage of miscues from the Reds in the field to win in extras, 7-6. The Yankees probably didn’t deserve to win. They didn’t play well a day after coming off a loss to the Reds.

Cincinnati is going into tonight at 35-55 and dead last in the NL Central.

The Cubs are slipping and could be last before long, though. They lost another last night to the Baltimore Orioles and are just a game ahead of the Reds.

Despite a sloppy couple of games, the Yankees are clear in the AL East with a record of 62-26. They have a quality 14-game lead on the Rays entering this evening.

The Reds will give this game a good go with Luis Castillo on the bump. Castillo was vanilla last year, but he’s running well going into Yankee Stadium. Nestor Cortes Jr. counters for the Yankees.

Head below for our free Reds vs. Yankees prediction on July 14, 2022.

Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Cincinnat Reds +1.5 (-115) +165 Over 8 (-110)
New York Yankees -1.5 (-105) -200 Under 8 (-110)
Team Data Cincinnati Reds New York Yankees
Overall Record 33-55 62-26
Away/Home Record 15-27 35-10
Batting Average .237 .242
Batting Average Away/Home .223 .232
Runs Per 9 4.33 5.33
Team ERA 5.27 3.05
Team ERA Away/Home 5.26 2.66

Reds vs. Yankees Prediction:

Luis Castillo has been a strong option for the Reds this season. He didn’t match his career numbers last year. Castillo finished with an ERA of 3.98 and a 1.36 WHIP.

That was off from his 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP a year earlier.

Castillo is well on track this season, though. The sixth-year starter has an ERA of 2.92 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He is coming off a dominant stretch, with an ERA of 0.90 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in his previous three attempts.

He was coming off a tough couple of games with 7 earned runs against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. However, since then, Castillo has allowed just 2 earned runs in 20 innings work.

Is it going to translate at Yankee Stadium, though? The Yankees haven’t been an easy out for Castillo previously. The Yankees are hitting .299 with a .362 OBP versus Castillo in 63 at-bats.

The Yanks lead the majors with 5.22 runs per 9 innings and 1.72 home runs a game.

They’re also the best pitching staff, with 3.19 runs allowed per 9 innings. This includes a bullpen ERA of 2.85 and a 1.13 WHIP for second.

Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 2-7 overall in their previous nine games versus the Yankees
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games at Yankee Stadium
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games versus the AL East
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games
  • UNDER is 5-2 in their previous seven games


  • Record (Last 10): 5-5
  • 17-3 overall in their previous 20 games at home
  • 6-1 overal in their previous seven games versus the Reds at home
  • 7-2 overall in their previous nine games versus the Reds
  • OVER is 6-1 in their previous seven games
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games as a betting favorite

  • The Reds don’t have a bullpen to back up Castillo. I anticipate the Yankees have a better game at the plate tonight and it is likely against the bullpen.

    Cincinnati is last in the majors with a bullpen ERA of 5.35 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

    The closest team to the Reds is the Rockies with a 4.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Yankees should be in good shape if lefty Nestor Cortes Jr. pitches well.

    Cortes Jr. enters with an ERA of 2.74 and a 1.03 WHIP across 90.1 innings. He’s been shaky on the road, but reliable at Yankee Stadium.

    Cortes Jr. has recorded an ERA of 2.01 and a 0.92 WHIP in 41 innings at home. He should look good against a Reds team hitting .223 with 3.35 runs per 9 innings on the road this season. Castillo poses a decent roadblock for the Yankees, but they should edge away.

    The Yankees look like the right call on the runlike at plus money.


    Reds vs. Yankees Pick
    NY YANKEES -1.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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