Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – MLB May 12, 2022

The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates have an early evening matchup at PNC Park on Thursday night. This is the first game in a four-game series between the Reds and Pirates. The Bucs are coming off a successful three-day series against the LA Dodgers at home.

That’s something the Pirates haven’t been able to experience against the Dodgers in many years. They were 16-0 going into that series and left with a 17-2 record versus the Dodgers in their previous 19 games.

The Pirates defeated the Dodgers by a score of 5-3 yesterday to close out the series with two of three wins. They advanced to 13-17 on the season with the win. Pittsburgh is a team that hasn’t had much to celebrate in recent memory, so beating the Dodgers was a good confidence booster.

The Reds are finally on the winning page after losing 20 of 21 games. They snapped a nine-game losing streak with a 9-2 win over the Pirates on Saturday. That was the beginning of four wins in their previous six attempts.

Cincinnati has to start somewhere, and while a 7-24 record doesn’t look like much, any wins are good after the epic slide they went on to open the season. The worst teams in baseball win around 50 games a season, so yeah, they were eventually going to get into the win column.

Back against the Bucs tonight, this time on the road at PNC Park. In their latest outing, the Reds won an entertaining contest by a score of 14-11 yesterday.

Tyler Stephenson had a showing for the Reds, as he poured it on for 4 RBIs on 5-for-3 hitting. Colin Moran and Tyler Naquin also chipped in with 3 RBIs in the offensive explosion.

Connor Overton, who hopes to stick in the rotation this season after struggling in his first season, is scheduled to get the nod for the Bucs tonight. J.T. Brubaker is looking for improvement after 24 starts in 2021.

Head below for our free Reds vs. Pirates prediction on May 12, 2022.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-164) +123 Over 8 (-120)
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+144) -133 Under 8.5 (+100)
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Team Data Cincinnati Reds Pittsburgh Pirates
Overall Record 7-24 13-17
Away/Home Record 2-15 7-8
Batting Average .214 .235
Batting Average Away/Home .188 .246
Runs Per 9 4.20 3.85
Team ERA 6.65 4.81
Team ERA Away/Home 7.17 4.37

Reds vs. Pirates Prediction:

The Reds haven’t done much of anything right this season. The biggest concern for the Reds has been their pitching, though. I’m confident that the bats are going to begin playing consistently, but their pitching staff is ugly.

There aren’t many indications that the pitching will improve drastically for the Reds. They can’t be any worse than they are right now, but don’t expect a big turnaround.

The Reds have a team ERA of 6.65 and an embarrassing mark of 7.17 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP on the road. They’ve allowed 6.82 runs per 9 innings and 1.60 home runs per game for 30th in the major leagues.

Limiting teams from making contact hasn’t been a strong suit, either. Opponents are hitting .278 versus the Reds this season. Nothing has gone well for the Reds in this regard. The offense will follow through, but the talent isn’t there for the Reds.

The offense has a good matchup against J.T. Brubaker tonight.

Despite the pitching woes, the Reds should do well versus Brubaker in this one. Brubaker posted an ERA of 4.94 and a 5.36 in his first two seasons.

Brubaker has been on the same trajectory this season as well. 2021 was his first season as a full-time pitcher, and it could have been better. He recorded an ERA of 5.36 and a 1.29 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 4-6
  • 5-21 overall in their previous 26 games as an underdog on the road
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games after a win
  • OVER is 8-0-1 in their previous nine games versus the NL Central
  • OVER is 13-2-1 in their previous 16 games
  • OVER is 11-1-1 in their previous 13 games as an underdog


  • Record (Last 10): 5-5
  • 5-2 overall in their previous seven games as a betting favorite
  • 8-20 overall in their previous 28 games after a win
  • OVER is 5-1 in their previous six games after a win
  • OVER is 4-0 in their previous four games versus a team with a winning percentage below 40%
  • OVER is 5-1 in their previous six games versus a right-handed pitcher
  • The offense has been swinging for the Reds after finding some stabilization recently. They’ve scored at least 7 runs in three of their last four attempts. Expect some success against Brubaker.

    Connor Overton is coming off a 8.31 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP last season. He’s looked good in two appearances in 2022, but this is only two starts.

    Overton enters with an ERA of 2.53 and a 1.03 WHIP against the Rockies and Pirates. The Bucs notched 6 hits and 2 earned runs across 5.1 innings.

    He is off to a quick start, but I worry that the Pirates are going to be well-prepared after seeing Overton just five days ago.

    It’s tough on young pitchers to adjust and play well against the same team in less than a week. If he brings the same stuff, the Pirates should pick up on it this time.

    In time with experience, the best pitchers know how to keep hitters off-balance and guessing. I don’t think Overton is at that point yet.

    I’d look at playing the OVER. The OVER is 6-0-1 in their previous seven meetings. It isn’t because of great offenses, but the pitching has been equally spotty on both sides over the last year. At 8 runs, the total looks low at PNC Park tonight.


    Reds vs. Pirates Pick
    OVER 8
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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