Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Pick – MLB July 25, 2022

The Boston Red Sox open the week following a disastrous series against the Toronto Blue Jays. They weren’t just swept. The Red Sox were humiliated and broke records that went back over 100 years ago.

After a horrific 28-5 loss on Friday night, the Red Sox followed up with a 4-1 and 8-4 loss. They were outscored by 30 runs, and if we want to go back to their series versus the Yankees, the Red Sox have been outscored by an insane 54 runs. This is the worst five-game differential since 1901.

It isn’t a case of the Red Sox coming slow out of the blocks in the second half. Keep in mind that they lost to the Yankees, 14-1 and 13-2 before the All-Star break.

After that terrible sequence at Yankee Stadium, the Red Sox went on the break and apparently called it quits. Did the Yankees break the Red Sox? It might have started momentum for the Red Sox to sell at the trade deadline.

The Red Sox have a lot of salaries to shed, so it might work out well for their long-term prospects.

Even if the Red Sox eke out a postseason berth, it’s hard to see them competing with the top contenders. Selling at the deadline is probably the better move. Down to 48-48, the Red Sox are 17.5 games behind the Yankees.

The Cleveland Guardians are in Boston for a four-game series looking to inch closer to the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Cleveland is currently at 48-46 and three games back of the Twins.

The Guardians need to win the division because they’re not going to be good enough for a wildcard. Zach Plesac is going to the mound to open this series at Fenway Park. Nick Pivetta will attempt to stop the bleeding for the banged-up Red Sox pitching staff.

Head below for our free Guardians vs. Red Sox prediction on July 25, 2022.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-195) -110 Over 9.5 (+100)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+165) -110 Under 9.5 (-120)
Team Data Cleveland Guardians Boston Red Sox
Overall Record 48-46 48-47
Away/Home Record 23-27 23-22
Batting Average .248 .253
Batting Average Away/Home .250 .264
Runs Per 9 4.46 4.63
Team ERA 3.90 4.28
Team ERA Away/Home 4.18 4.73

Guardians vs. Red Sox Prediction:

Nick Pivetta has been part of the problem for the Red Sox recently. He can be a fine pitcher, but Pivetta isn’t feeling it like the rest of the team. Overall, Pivetta has an ERA of 4.50 and a 1.26 WHIP.

That’s fine, but Pivetta has gone off the rails as of late.

The Canadian carries an ERA of 13.50 and a 2.25 WHIP into tonight from his last three starts. He’s allowed 23 hits and 20 earned runs during that stretch. In his latest start, Pivetta yielded 7 hits and 7 earned runs through 4.1 innings against the Yankees.

Pivetta was strong to end last month, with 2 earned runs allowed against the Jays, but he hasn’t prevented fewer than 6 earned runs in a performance since then.

Is Pivetta going to suddenly bounce back to form? Bettors have been chasing the Red Sox this past weekend, which didn’t work out. It’s no guarantee that Pivetta figures it out at Fenway in this one.

With a .342 batting average and 7 RBIs, the Guardians have had success against Pivetta in 45 at-bats.

When the ball goes to the bullpen, don’t expect too much from that unit either. They are exhausted and need a break just days after the All-Star break.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games versus the AL East
  • 3-9 overall in their previous 12 games on the road
  • OVER is 5-0-1 in their previous six games
  • OVER is 5-2 in their previous seven games versus a team with a winning record
  • OVER is 5-2 in their previous seven games after conceding 5 or more runs

Red Sox

  • Record (Last 10): 1-9
  • 7-0 overall in their previous seven games versus the AL Central
  • 2-7 overall in their previous nine games at home
  • OVER is 6-1 in their previous seven games
  • OVER is 5-1 in their previous six games versus the Guardians at home
  • OVER is 8-2 in their previous ten games after conceding 5 or more runs

  • Zach Plesac has been fine, but hasn’t been at his best on the road. He enters with an ERA of 4.02 and a 1.27 WHIP, with his numbers dipping as a visitor.

    Plesac has posted an ERA of 4.93 and a 1.24 WHIP in his previous three starts on the road.

    In his latest performances, he’s been pretty consistent with that mark. Plesac has an ERA of 4.91 and a 1.50 WHIP in his previous three starts.

    Through 35 at-bats, the Red Sox have notched 6 RBIs and a .331 bating average vs Plesac in his career. The pitching has primarily been the problem for the Red Sox recently. The offense should at least keep the team afloat at Fenway tonight.

    Even money on the OVER doesn’t look like a bad play in Boston tonight. The Red Sox pitching staff is battered and can’t be trusted at the moment. Plesac can be a wildcard on the road, so I think there will be some runs.


    Guardians vs. Red Sox Pick
    OVER 9.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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