The Cleveland Indians are in Minnesota Saturday for game three of a four-game series with the Twins. This series has been action packed as game one saw the Indians take an 8-0 lead only to watch the Twins roar back and tie it at eight runs late. Cleveland managed to salvage the game when Francisco Lindor homered in the eighth inning to give the Indians the lead for good. Game two was a fun one as well as both teams scored early and often, and the Twins took the game 7-4 to even up the series at one game apiece.
The Indians have heated up recently as they had won six straight games before dropping game two last night. The Twins are just the opposite, as last night’s win ended what was seven games out of eight losing streak. Both of these teams have eyes on the American League Central title, which is seemingly up for grabs as no team is playing all that well this year.
Starting tonight for the Twins is the embattled Lance Lynn (3-4 5.94 ERA), and for the Indians, it is Trevor Bauer (4-3 2.61 ERA). The Indians are -158 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine runs. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 PM PST from Target Field in Minneapolis.
The Cleveland Indians are finally starting to get their act together after a slow start. The Indians are slowly starting to pull away with the AL Central lead after spending much of the season on the wrong side of .500. The Central is clearly the worst division in all of baseball this year and Cleveland can likely take home the division title by winning eighty-five games, or maybe even less. How are the Indians finally winning games? By slugging their way to high scoring wins.
Tonight’s starter Trevor Bauer has been a fan of all this run support as his teammates have scored ten runs in both of his last two starts. The Indians have scored thirty-five runs in Bauer’s last four starts, it’s no wonder they are finally winning some games with all that production. But to give Bauer credit, he hasn’t needed all of that support as he has been very good this season.
His 2.61 ERA is seventh best in the American League, and he is sixth in the league in wins above replacement. In his last start, he struck out thirteen Astros in seven and a third innings in a win and his two starts previous to that, he pitched fourteen innings and didn’t allow a single run. The Indians have won six out of his last nine starts. Bauer has certainly enjoyed all the run support, but he hasn’t really needed it.
Starting today for the Twins is Lance Lynn. Lynn has not enjoyed his short time in the American League. The longtime National League starter with the St. Louis Cardinals, came over in the offseason and he has gotten hammered in the AL. He is just 3-4 with an ERA of 5.94. He has been improved a bit recently as he has lowered his ERA from 8.37, where it stood at the end of April.
In his last two starts, he has actually been decent as he picked up wins against the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers. But that being said, those are two of the worst teams in the majors this year, and everyone is beating them. I am curious to see what Lynn is able to do against a team actually trying to win games. Lynn has really struggled to get deep into games and has pitched five innings or fewer in six out of his ten starts on the season.
I have bet against Lance Lynn a bunch this year, and it is making me a lot of money. He just can’t seem to figure out the American League quite yet and has been getting hammered. His last two OK starts against two very bad teams isn’t going to make me forget that the Twins lost six of his first eight starts. This game feels like a blowout.
Bauer is pitching very well right now, and this Indians team is really swinging a hot bat. Cleveland is scoring seven and a half runs a game over their last eight games. This strong hitting lineup is going to love facing a struggling Lance Lynn. The money line is a bit steep at -158, but when you look at the run line, we can actually pick up some dog money on Cleveland in this one. This should be a game where runs are easy to come by for Cleveland so laying that extra run and a half doesn’t scare me off of going for the bigger payout.
So, I will lay the run and a half and expect a lopsided game. Lynn likely won’t see the sixth inning, again. The Indians should hammer him, and even if they don’t, they have one of the best pitchers in the American League this year to fall back on, in Trevor Bauer. When all things point to a blowout, I will take a shot at the bigger payout. Give me the Cleveland Indians on the run line at +105 today in Minnesota!