Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees MLB Pick – August 16th

When the Philadelphia Phillies paid Bryce Harper $330 Million dollars in the offseason, they did it because they wanted to bring in a player that could win them a game all by himself. Bryce got his chance last night as he came up with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning, with his Phillies team trailing by two runs. And he did not disappoint as he blasted a moonshot, upper decker, grand slam home run, to walk the game off for the Phillies.

The blast completed an improbable comeback that saw the Phillies hit the bottom of the ninth down 5-1. They won the game 7-5. The late-game heroics also pushed the game over the total of nine and a half, and we picked up our second straight winning bet. It was the definition of a back-door cover!

The game itself went a lot like I thought it would as Drew Smyly was awful for Philly. I questioned why they even traded for a guy like Smyly that was having such a bad season, and he got banged up again last night, giving up five runs on seven hits in just five innings of work. He did what he could to push the game to the over, but Cubs starter Yu Darvish was lights out in seven innings, allowing no runs.

It looked like we were going to take a hard-luck loss, before Harper and the rest of the Phillies battered the Cubs bullpen for seven runs in the final two innings. We got a little bit lucky late in the game, but that is why a bet on the over is so exciting, you are never out of the game until the final pitch is tossed! For today’s bet, we will head to the Bronx where the Yankees host the Cleveland Indians.

The Cleveland Indians are in New York City Friday for game two of a four-game series with the Yankees. The Indians exploded for a whopping nineteen runs last night in game one to take the series lead. Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana both had multiple home runs, and seven different guys drove runs in, led by Ramirez who had six RBI on the night.

The win was a big one for Cleveland as they are in a tight race with the Minnesota Twins for the American League Central Division title. With the win last night, the Indians are now just a half of a game back of Minnesota for first place. The Indians are 10-5 in the month of August.

For New York, they are at little risk of giving up first place in their division, the American League East, as they hold a nine and a half-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays, and have the best record in the major leagues, tied with the Los Angles Dodgers. The loss was a rare one for New York as they had won thirteen of their previous fifteen games this month before getting blown out last night.

Starting for the Yankees is Masahiro Tanaka (8-6 4.64 ERA), and for the Indians, it is Aaron Civale (1-1 1.00 ERA). The game total over-under is set at ten and a half runs. The Yankees are -144 home favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 PM PST from Yankee Stadium in New York City.

The New York Yankees are finally getting their lineup healthy, and you can see the difference at the plate. The Yankees are leading the majors in runs scored this month, and really, it’s not even that close. The Houston Astros and their juggernaut lineup have scored six fewer runs that the Bronx Bombers this month, and the third-place team, the Minnesota Twins, are a distant twenty-eight runs behind New York. The Yankees have smashed forty-two home runs in sixteen games this month, and as a team, they are hitting nearly .300 since the trade deadline.

When you look at the game total for New York, they have gone over nearly every game in the last couple of weeks. During the month of August, the Yankees and their opponents have combined for double-digit runs in thirteen of their sixteen games. A big part of that is their powerful lineup, but New York is also experimenting with a lot of young guys in the bullpen, and we saw last night that occasionally those experiments can go wrong.

Masahiro Tanka has really struggled since the All-Star break. In his six starts since the break, his ERA is over seven runs. In July, he had an ERA of nearly nine runs as he gave up twenty-five runs in five starts, including seven home runs. But despite the fact that he hasn’t been very good this year, the Yankees seem to find ways to win when he is on the mound. New York has won ten of his last eleven starts.

Tanaka has allowed four runs or more in a start ten times this season. That includes a start a couple weeks back where the Boston Red Sox nailed him for twelve runs in three innings. To say the guy has been inconsistent would be a major understatement. He does still occasionally show up though. We saw that last week when he tossed eight shutout innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. It will be interesting to see what Tanaka brings to the park tonight as the Cleveland Indians are certainly not the Toronto Blue Jays.

Aaron Civale made his major league debut in a spot start on June 22nd for Cleveland and looked great in six innings of work. The Indians have called Civale back up here in August to help a playoff push, and the youngster has been great. In his two August starts since rejoining the team, Civale has pitched six innings in both games and has allowed just one run in each appearance.

I see fireworks coming tonight! The Yankees can’t stop scoring runs, and with Tanaka on the mound, with a weary bullpen that got blasted for fourteen runs yesterday behind him, I see the Yankees giving up a bunch of runs as well. Civale has certainly been impressive in his short stint in the big leagues, but he is about to get a rude awakening tonight. Shutting down the Texas Rangers and the Detroit Tigers does not mean you are going to be able to slow down these red-hot Yankees. Welcome to the show kid!

This is one of those games that could turn crazy like last night’s affair that saw twenty-four runs go up on the board. After getting embarrassed on their home field last night, I see New York showing no mercy to this rookie tonight. And we all know that Tanaka is going to give up at least a couple of runs as well. So, I am going to take the over in this one tonight.

And shockingly, the public seems to be on the under, as we can get dog money on the over right now at +102. You have two choices here. Take the over ten and a half at +102, or expect the under action to keep coming, and wait for the line to adjust to ten runs at -110. Personally, I will take the extra juice as I see this one sailing way over, and I want the higher payout more than the half of a run. But I could see a case for waiting for the line to move as well. As it stands now, I will take the over ten and a half runs tonight in the Bronx at +102!

The Bet: Over 10.5 runs at +102

My Pick
OVER 10.5
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL