We picked up the win last night when we backed the Houston Astros as small road favorites against the Los Angeles Angels. The line was a tight one as the Astros bumped Gerrit Cole’s scheduled start back to today to give him extra rest and decided to give Framber Valdez his first ever MLB start instead. The uncertainty with Valdez kept this line tight, but I still felt I was getting huge value by backing the significantly better team, the Houston Astros.
Valdez pitched very well as he lasted just five innings, but gave up only one run on two hits. He threw only 77 pitches but was happy to leave the game a bit early and turn things over to the best bullpen in the majors. The ‘pen held the lead for Valdez, and he picked up his first ever MLB win for his efforts. The game was a close one, as the Astros couldn’t much going on offense, but we picked up the win and stayed hot.
The Astros are officially hot again as last night was their fifth straight win. The Astros will head to Oakland for a giant showdown with the second place Oakland Athletics and could basically put the division series out of play with a sweep of the A’s. The Angels have now lost eight out of their last nine games. For today’s pick, we will stay right here in Los Angeles as the Angels look to bounce back against the Colorado Rockies.
The Colorado Rockies are in Los Angeles Monday for game one of a quick two-game series with the Angels. The Rockies are 11-4 in their last fifteen games and are in a dogfight right now in the National League West Division race. The Rockies are currently in second place, a game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for first place. The Angels have been decimated by injury all season long and after a hot start to the season have fallen completely out of contention and are a season-high, five games under .500.
Starting tonight for the Rockies is Jon Gray (10-7 4.67 ERA), and for the Angels it is Odrisamer Despaigne (2-2 6.35 ERA). The Rockies are -138 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight runs. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 PM PST from Angel Stadium in Anaheim.
Odrisamer Despaigne is a guy you start when nothing else really matters. The guy was brought over in a minor trade in late May form the Miami Marlins. Despaigne wasn’t having much success working out of the Marlins bullpen before the deal as he had an ERA of 5.31 in mostly all relief appearances.
With all of the injuries to their rotation, the Angels are forced to start him tonight in game one against the Rockies. In two starts with the Angels, Despaigne is 0-2 with an ERA north of nine runs. While their offensive stats might be somewhat inflated by the fact they play their home games at Coors Field, this Rockies team is top ten in just about every offensive category. I suspicion they are going to really get after Odrisamer Despaigne tonight.
Jon Gray has caught absolute fire recently. After a little bit of a slow start to the year, Gray has been stellar in the season’s second half. The Rockies have won the last nine starts where Gray has been on the mound, and he has a 4-0 record during that stretch. What has been even more impressive during that stretch is how deep into games Gray is getting. He has gotten in seven innings or more of work in seven of those nine starts.
This is a standard late August mismatch. The Angels are shutting things down, and the Rockies are ramping things up for a playoff run. We see these a lot in late August and early September. I tend to stay away from too many run line bets as they are like playing with fire, but in a situation like this one where the game has a high likelihood of not being competitive, I will take a look at it.
The money line is Colorado -138. That seems very reasonable, and certainly the side to be on. But when you look over at the run line, it flips this script, and you can actually get dog money on the Rockies on the run line in this one. Given the fact that the Rockies are near certain to hammer Odrisamer Despaigne, and that Jon Gray hasn’t lost a game in nearly three months, I am loving that spot.
So, I will lay that run and a half and look for a blowout tonight. All signs point to Colorado dominating so I will take a shot at the big payout. Give me the Colorado Rockies laying a run and a half at +107 tonight in game one!