Rockies at Dodgers MLB Betting Odds and Pick for July 6th

OUR PICK

OVER 9

As usual, Wednesday features a boatload of MLB action with games scattered throughout the day. 10 games will take place in the evening hours, but the latest game of the night is the one that seems to offer the best betting value.

The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers will wrap up a three-game series at Chavez Ravine. After losing two of three to Colorado in Denver last week, the Dodgers have bounced back to claim the first two games of this series on their home field.

Based on the odds, you can see oddsmakers certainly love the Dodgers’ chances of completing the sweep tonight. Los Angeles is an absolutely gargantuan -320 moneyline favorite against a potentially overmatched Rockies right-hander.

The series finale between the teams also features an over/under of nine runs, with juice (-120) heavily skewed toward the over.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies got off to a promising enough start, but the wheels have since fallen off the wagon for Bud Black’s crew. Colorado checks in at just 35-46 on the season, which puts them 16.5 games behind the Dodgers and dead-last in the NL West standings.

Colorado will welcome right-hander Jose Urena back to the big leagues for a start tonight. The veteran broke into the majors with the Miami Marlins several years ago before ultimately finding his way to Detroit. He was designated for assignment by the Brewers earlier this season after appearing in four games out of the bullpen. Colorado signed Urena to a minor-league contract in May.

Frankly, there’s a reason this guy was floating around in free agency until the Rockies scooped him up. Urena owns a career 4.76 ERA at the major-league level with a career record of just 36-54.

Urena posted a ghastly 5.81 ERA in 26 games for the Tigers a season ago, including 18 starts. For his career, Urena has a strikeout rate of about 15 percent at thee MLB level, including a K-rate just over 11 percent against left-handed hitters.

Those kinds of splits won’t work too well against anybody, but Urena profiles particularly poorly against these Dodgers. Los Angeles can throw as many as five left-handed hitters into the lineup against him tonight, headlined by Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger.

On the year, the Dodgers’ projected lineup ranks toward the top of the league in many major statistical categories against righties, including wOBA (.345) and isolated slugging (.202).

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers haven’t quite lived up to expectations after coming into the year billed as one of the greatest rosters ever assembled. However, Dave Roberts would probably accept a healthy 5.5-game lead in the division after the team failed to win the NL West a season ago. The 5.5 games that separate the Dodgers from the Padres atop the division is the biggest gap of the season to this point.

After rookie Ryan Pepiot enjoyed the finest start of his career on Tuesday, the Dodgers will turn to another youngster in tonight’s game. Mitch White, who is essentially serving as a rotational stopgap amid a few injuries, will make his 12th appearances of the season for Los Angeles.

White’s 3.93 ERA is impressive, and it’s a testament to the Dodgers’ incredible pitching depth that he’s not even a regular member of the rotation. If he were on the Rockies, White might be one of the team’s three best starting pitchers. White has been solid in the strikeouts department (22.8 percent), though Colorado has been a very low-strikeout offense on the season (20 percent).

The Rockies finally got some good news on Tuesday when Kris Bryant slugged his first home run of the season. Colorado’s new franchise player has been limited by injuries in his first year with the team, but he finally hit one over the fence last night. Since his return, Bryant is hitting .412 in his first four games of this month and suddenly starting to look like the player the Rockies committed nearly $200 million to over the winter.

The Rockies’ offense has largely underperformed this season, but they look more daunting with Bryant looking more and more like himself. CJ Cron is a legitimate National League All-Star candidate, while Ryan McMahon and Charlie Blackmon have been hitting well in recent games. Blackmon’s hitless effort in Tuesday’s game snapped a seven-game hitting streak for the veteran outfielder.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Game Pick

The Rockies have allowed 438 runs so far this season. Plenty of that can be attributed to the fact that they play half of their games at Coors Field, but that is still the third-worst mark in the National League. The matchup for Urena tonight is a brutal one, as the Dodgers (403) have scored the second-most runs of any offense in all of baseball this season.

Please Note:

Urena and Freddie Freeman are quite familiar with one another after they preivously squared off in the NL East. Freeman has owned Urena to this point, with a robust slash line of .419/.500/.1000 with four home runs across 31 career head-to-head plate appearances.

Considering he’s been toiling away in the minors for the past couple of months, I don’t see much reason to believe Urena is capable of stifling the Dodgers’ offense in this one. I’d expect a short outing for him here against one of the deepest and most talented offenses in the league. Colorado’s bullpen ERA is also toward the bottom of the barrel, so things might not get much rosier for the Rockies even after Urena exits.

The over on nine runs looks like the very clear play in this one. The Dodgers are fully capable of going over that number by themselves in this one, but I do expect the Rockies to put a few runs on the board against White. The -120 odds on the over indicate this is the best play, but there’s still some meat on the bone.

Pick:

Over 9 runs

-120

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