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Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick – August 5th

The Milwaukee Brewers will look to stay hot today as they host the Colorado Rockies in game three of a three-game series, looking for the sweep. The Brewers have taken the first two games of the series and are surging up the standings in the National League. Milwaukee won game one 5-3 with a bottom of the ninth walk-off home run. They followed that win up yesterday with an 8-4 beatdown that saw them jump out to a 6-0 first inning lead and hold on late to take the series win.

Starting tonight for the Brewers is Wade Miley (2-1 1.53 ERA), and for the Rockies, it is Jon Gray (9-7 4.99 ERA). The Brewers are small -111 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine runs. First pitch is scheduled for 11:10 AM PST from Miller Park in Milwaukee.

The Colorado Rockies were the talk of the National League in July as they had a very strong month and went from playoff pretender to playoff contender in just a few weeks times. But now that August has started, the Rockies are back on shaky ground. Colorado is 0-4 this month, and they have lost five out of their last six games going back to late July.

To make matters worse for the Rockies, they play in one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseball, the National League West, and they find themselves buried in third place, three games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks. There is just very little room for error right now for this Rockies team, and if they want to stay in the playoff conversation, they must turn around this little slump asap.

Colorado will turn to Jon Gray tonight to turn things around. Gray has struggled much of the year but seems to be in a groove right now. The Rockies have won his last five starts, and in July he went 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA. He has pitched at least seven innings in all three July starts, after missing the first two weeks of the month with an injury.
Gray has one start this season against the Brewers, and it did not go well for him. Way back on May 13th, Gray faced the Brewers and got tagged for six earned runs in just five, and a third innings worked, and the Rockies got blown out. Gray has been a tough back on the road this season as he is just 4-4 with an ERA of 5.43 away from Coors Field.

The Brewers will start Wade Miley today in the series finale. Miley joined the Brewers rotation in July as a regular and they guy has really impressed. In four July starts, Miley is 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA. In a combined twenty-three innings pitched he has allowed just four earned runs. That is some elite level stuff out of a guy that historically is mediocre at best. Miley is getting it done right now by pitching to contact and forcing a bunch of ground balls. If Miley can continue up this pace, the Brewers are locks to make the postseason.

With a win today, the Brewers would be making quite the statement. They are just one game back of the Chicago Cubs for first place in the National League Central Division, and they hold a two and a half game lead in the race for the NL wild-card. Sweeping another contending team would really go a long way into showing the rest of the NL that this team is for real.

The Brewers slipped up a bit in early July as they had several players get injured and hit the DL. But for the most part, everyone is back healthy, and they made several moves at the trade deadline to make a push for the playoffs. The Brewers are 9-4 in their last thirteen games as they stay hot on Chicago’s heels.

I don’t think there is any chance that Wade Miley can keep up what he is doing right now. I’ve watched this guy pitch for the better part of the last decade, and he just isn’t this good. But that doesn’t mean he won’t stay hot for another start or two. At some point, he will come back to earth, but I am hoping he can ride this wave of Brewers success a little longer and pitch well again today.

I love betting home teams, and I love betting hot teams, and I get to do both today in this game. The Brewers are playing very well at the moment, and the Rockies are struggling. Miley isn’t as good as his recent stats suggest, but neither is Jon Gray. I get to back what I see as the better team, that is playing better right now, and they are at home. And they are barely charging me for it as its just -111. That sounds like a bargain to me. Give me the Milwaukee Brewers as small home favorites tonight as they go for the sweep!

The Bet: Milwaukee Brewers -111

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