It feels good to hit a big underdog bet, doesn’t it? That is what we did last night when we took the St. Louis Cardinals on the run line at +140 against the Minnesota Twins. The game went much as planned as Lance Lynn was once again bad and was run from the game early again, this time after only three innings of work. We have been having a rough go of it with bullpens blowing games for us lately, and the Cardinals pen tried to do that again to us last night.
We held a comfortable lead most of the game and were able to fade the Twins two-run eighth inning and held on for the 7-5 underdog win and run line cover. Betting against Lance Lynn has been paying dividends all season long. It is quickly appearing that Lynn just isn’t cut out for pitching in the American League and I will continue to look for ways to fade him profitably. For today’s bet I will look at the game between the San Francisco Giants and the Colorado Rockies.
The Colorado Rockies are in the Bay Area Thursday for game one of a three-game set with their National League West Divisional rival, the San Francisco Giants. The Rockies find themselves three games above .500 and very much in the mix for the NL West Division title. The Giants aren’t far behind as they sit just a game and a half back of Colorado and three and a half games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks for first place in the division.
Starting tonight for the Rockies is Chad Bettis (4-1 3.12 ERA), and for the Giants, it is Jeff Samardzija (1-2 6.94 ERA). The Giants are -135 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight runs. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM PST from AT&T Park in San Francisco.
Chad Bettis is likely the best pitcher you haven’t heard of this season. He is fifth in the National League in wins above replacement (WAR) behind only Aaron Nola, Max Scherzer, Johnny Cueto, and Jacob deGrom. That is some great company to be around. He has been especially good on the road as when is not pitching in the rarified air of Coors Field, he is basically unhittable.
In his five starts away from Coors Field this year Bettis is 4-1 with a 1.35 ERA. At home in Colorado? His ERA swells to 6.89. Before getting roughed up in his last outing against the Milwaukee Brewers, he was enjoying a true breakout season. Through his first seven starts, he had an ERA of 2.05. A lot of people may not have heard of Chad Bettis, but he is pitching really well right now, and you need to take notice.
Jeff Samardzija has had times in his career where he has been elite. But that seems like a long time ago now as he is doing his best to just stay in the Giants rotation at this point. On the year, Samardzija is just 1-2 with an ERA of 6.94. He is throwing a lot of pitches but still failing to get deep into games. He has yet to make it past the sixth inning in any of his five starts this year.
Samardzija has really struggled giving up the long ball and handing out walks. In his twenty-three and a third innings of work this year he has given up five bombs and walked fifteen batters. Worse yet for the Giants, they have lost three of his last four starts. Despite Colorado not being a great offensive team, they do have a lot of pop as they are sixth in all of baseball in home runs on the year. It will be interesting to see if Samardzija is able to keep them in the park tonight.
I was pretty shocked to see the Giants as favorites in this game. Colorado has been the better team most of the year, and Bettis has been great. Maybe the fact the Bettis hasn’t been very good at Coors Field have fooled people into thinking that he isn’t elite on the road? Whatever the case may be, I really like Colorado in this pick tonight.
It feels like I am getting the better team, and way the best of the starting pitching matchup, and dog money. That is the holy trifecta of baseball betting, and I love situations where I can back the dog and feel like I am the favorite. The dog money is just the extra cherry on top for what I feel is a bet with a ton of value. Give me the Colorado Rockies as road underdogs tonight in game one at +115!
The Bet: Colorado Rockies +115