The wins just keep on coming for us! We picked up another win last night when we backed the Milwaukee Brewers against the Pittsburgh Pirates. This game featured two starters that were starting over for new teams after recently being traded, in the Brewers Gio Gonzalez and the Pirates, Chris Archer. I have been riding this wave of recent Brewers success and decided to back them as small home favorites.
The game was a fun, back and forth affair. The Brewers jumped out to a three-run lead in the first inning as Archer got lit up early. But the Pirates made a game out of it as they tied the game up at three in the top of the fifth inning. In the end, the Brewers pulled away for the 7-4 victory, and we cashed another ticket.
With the win, we have now won fourteen of our last twenty bets on baseball, with seven of those winners coming as money line underdogs. That is a 70% winning percentage, and we have picked up over eight betting units in just two week’s time. Late season baseball is some of the most profitable time of the year to bet, so don’t turn it off just yet as football starts to dominate all the betting conversation. We will look to keep the hot streak alive today when we look at the game between the San Francisco Giants and the Colorado Rockies.
The struggling San Francisco Giants will look to play spoiler tonight as they host their division rivals, the Colorado Rockies in game two of a three-game series. The Giants beat the Rockies last night in game one 2-0, powered by a complete game shutout, two-hitter from Chris Stratton. The loss hurt the Rockies as they lost a game to both the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the race for the National League West Division title. The Rockies now hold just a slim half of a game lead over the Dodgers for first place, with the DBacks lurking just three and a half games back.
Starting for the Giants is their ace, Madison Bumgarner (5-6 3.30 ERA) and for the Rockies, it is German Marquez (12-9 3.94 ERA). The Rockies are big -140 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at seven runs. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 PM PST from AT&T Park in San Francisco.
The San Francisco Giants are really struggling to swing the bats right now. Since dumping Andrew McCutchen in a trade to the New York Yankees and shutting down Buster Posey for the season with an injury, the Giants haven’t scored many runs. In fact, the Giants had lost eleven straight games before stealing game one last night from Colorado. That had to make that loss sting extra hard for the Rockies as they needed the win so badly.
There have been two Madison Bumgarner’s this season. The one at home, and the one everywhere else. His home and away splits are very starkly contrasted. On the road? He is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA in ten starts. At home? He is 3-2 with a 1.49 ERA. The guy is simply unhittable at home this year. In his last two home starts, he has pitched a combined fourteen innings and hasn’t allowed a single run. Bumgarner has three starts against the Rockies this season.
The two in Colorado? He got pounded in both games and picked up two losses. The one in San Francisco? He pitched seven shutout innings and allowed just two hits. In his eight home starts this season, Bumgarner has allowed one run or fewer in five of them. He just loves to pitch in the friendly confines of AT&T Park.
German Marquez has been the exact opposite of Bumgarner this season. At home the guy is trash. He has a 5.83 ERA in fifteen starts. But on the road, the guy is elite, as in fourteen starts he is 7-3 with a 2.42 ERA. He faced these Giants a little over a week ago and pitched great. On September 2nd he threw six and two-thirds of an innings, gave up just two runs and struck out eleven.
This game is going to be low scoring. Both of these pitchers love to pitch in this park, and I expect a very similar game to last nights. And in a game that is going to be so tightly contested, it is hard not to like the side getting all the juice. Yeah, the Rockies are the better team in this one, I am not sure you can even argue the other side of that. But they were the better team yesterday too, and they lost that game.
Anytime that one swing of the bat could decide the game, it is a coin flip to me. And in coin flip games, I always back the dogs and hope the coin flips my way. Being on the value side of these tight matchups is always where you want to be. So, for today’s pick, I will offer a double pick. I’ll take the under seven runs, and I will back the Giants as big home underdogs. I see Bumgarner outdueling Marques in a 3-2 type of game.