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Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants MLB Pick – September 16th

We picked up the rare double dip winner last night where I gave you two picks on one game, and they both came in! We backed the San Francisco Giants as big home underdogs at +130 and also jumped on the under seven runs game total. I expected Madison Bumgarner to continue his home field success as the guy has been essentially unhittable in San Fran this season and that is exactly what happened.

Bumgarner put in a solid six innings of work, allowing no runs on just five hits. But it could have been much better as he was pulled with a side injury after throwing just sixty-four pitches. This had a complete game shutout written all over it before Madison injured himself swinging the bat in the fourth inning. The Giants continued to swing a light bat as they managed just three runs, but it was plenty as the Giants bullpen did their part and finished out the shutout for Bumgarner.

This series has been nothing short of disastrous for the Rockies as they came into this series in first place in the National League West Division with the thoughts of an easy weekend series with an out of contention team. But things have gone sour quickly as they have dropped to second place behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and are desperately trying to avoid the sweep tonight in game three. For today’s pick, I will stay right here with the drama in San Francisco and break down game three of this series.

Starting today for the Giants is rookie sensation Dereck Rodriguez (6-3 2.35 ERA), and for the Rockies, it is Antonio Senzatela (4-6 5.01 ERA). The Rockies are -115 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at seven and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 PM PST from AT&T Park in San Francisco.

The Colorado Rockies could ill afford this power outage this weekend. They have yet to score a run against the Giants in this series and their postseason dreams are going up in smoke quickly as they have fallen behind the Dodgers for their division lead and are just a half of a game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals for the second wild card in the NL. To make matters worse, the guy they are playing against today, in Dereck Rodriguez, is likely the best pitcher they will face in this series. And they couldn’t score anything on the first two starters!

No disrespect to Madison Bumgarner, the guy is a legend, but its been a shaky year for him. Rodriguez has been lights out all year long and has a 2.35 ERA on the season. In his last twelve starts, Rodriguez has allowed two runs or fewer in eleven of them. He started against this Rockies team last week and threw six innings and allowed just one run on six hits. Similar to Bumgarner, Rodriguez has been very tough at home as he has a 2.22 ERA in eleven home starts this season.

Antonio Senzatela has not had nearly as much success in his young career as Rodriguez has in his rookie campaign this year. Senzatela has an ERA north of five runs and has been doing a whole lot of losing this season for the Rockies. The Rockies are just 6-13 in games where Senzatela has appeared this season. He started his season pitching out of the Colorado bullpen and has been converted into a starter in the second half of the year and has struggled in both roles.

Look, the San Francisco Giants can’t hit a lick right now. But that hasn’t stopped them from winning the first two games of this series. And if they were ever going to score runs, it would be against a guy like Senzatela that has been a punching bag all season long. While the Giants have certainly underachieved this season, they are still a good home team as they are eight games over .500 in San Francisco.

And when you look at how well Rodriguez has been pitching, the Giants aren’t going to need to score many runs to win this game. This feels a lot like the first two games of this series where both teams struggle to score, but the Giants do just enough to put a couple runs on the board and win the game. So, I will stick with the hot hand in this one and take my favorite type of bet, a home underdog.

I expect that Rodriguez will get in another six or seven innings of stellar work and the Rockies will really struggle at the plate. I would jump on the under as well, but Antonio Senzatela scares me too much. This guy might just get lit up, and with a total so low, I can’t look to fade that. So, I will just take the one bet, the Giants as home dogs and hope to keep my burning hot summer alive. Give me the San Francisco Giants at +105 at home as the Giants look to sweep!

The Bet: Giants +105

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