Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Pick – MLB July 31, 2021

The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres square off for the third matchup of a four-game series at Petco Park. The Padres took the first game behind a standout performance from Joe Musgrove. Musgrove kept on for just 3 hits and no runs allowed across 7 innings. The Rockies came up with no runs in a 3-0 loss.

Kyle Freeland was playing with fire in that one, as he allowed 8 hits, but managed to give up only 1 earned run through 6 innings. The Padres had him on the ropes, through couldn’t blow the game open. They are in the hunt for the NL West title, and may miss the postseason all together.

The Padres head into Saturday with a record of 60-46, and 5.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants for the lead. In the wildcard race, the Padres are up on the Reds with a four-game lead for the final spot. In other words, it isn’t a lock that the Padres are going to be playing baseball in October.

It would certainly be a surprise if the Padres miss out, but three different scenarios are all in play going into August. That includes winning the NL West, a wildcard, or going home after the regular season concludes. If you want a value play to win the division, the Padres might be the best place to look.

The road is going to be on since the Dodgers traded for Max Scherzer and Trae Turner. The Giants haven’t shown any signs of slowing down either, but for the price you’re getting on the Padres, it wouldn’t be the worst bet out there on the board. San Diego did not play the trade deadline game and opted to stay with what they have.

Also working against the Padres is a Fernando Tatis Jr. shoulder injury. He aggravated it again last night, so we will have to see how long he remains out of competition for. Tatis is listed as doubtful and will be evaluated on Saturday. The Padres hope that Yu Darvish can spring back to form versus the Rockies in this one. He hasn’t been in the best of form recently. German Marquez counters for the Rox. Head below for our free Rockies vs. Padres pick on July 31, 2021.

Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres MLB Betting Odds:


  • Rockies +1.5 (-131)
  • Padres -1.5 (+111)

    Rockies +175

  • Padres -190

  • Over 7 (-113)
  • Under 7 (-107)


Rockies vs. Padres Prediction:

The Padres are in tough if they are going to be without Fernando Tatis Jr. down the stretch. Having said that, the Padres played quality baseball earlier in the season when he missed a chunk of time. It seemed like the rest of the roster was motivated to show that they’re capable of winning without him in the lineup.

Oddsmakers overreacted to the injury, and the Padres had some pretty nice value when Tatis was out. Of maybe more importance tonight is Yu Darvish getting back into a rhythm. He’s looked like a Cy Young candidate at times, but has allowed his numbers to slip of late.

Darvish posted an ERA of 3.27 and a 1.01 WHIP in 20 starts this season. Respectable numbers for Darvish, but he’s regressed recently with a 7.90 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in his previous three starts. He is coming off a dreadful performance in Miami against the Marlins with 5 hits and 4 earned runs allowed in 5 innings.

I’m confident that Darvish can settle into a groove and head in the right direction against the Rockies. He’s back home at Petco Park where he’s been a better pitcher. Darvish has an ERA of 2.79 and 0.97 WHIP in San Diego. The Rockies have just .182 versus Darvish in 93 at-bats. This is a Colorado offense that hasn’t had much success on the road.

They have scored only 3.2 runs per 9 innings and are hitting .210 at the plate on the road. Last night was the exception at Petco. If the offense reverses to their usual struggles, German Marquez will be called upon to show up. Tatis Jr. is just 1-for-10 against Marquez in his career, but the rest of the Padres have done well for the most part.

The Padres are hitting .262 with 13 RBIs versus Marquez in 123 at-bats. That batting average includes Tatis’ average of .100. Overall, though, Marquez has been in solid form with an ERA of 3.54 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He hasn’t been great over his last two starts, though. Marquez has conceded 15 hits and 7 earned runs in his previous 12.1 frames.

I sense a bounce back spot for Darvish against Marquez on Saturday night. The Rockies are just 12-39 on the road and struggle to score as visitors typically, despite the effort yesterday. At plus money, the oddsmakers and public might be overreacting a bit too much over the Tatis Jr. injury and Darvish coming off a bad outing.


Our Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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