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Cubs vs. Braves MLB Pick – July 17th

We took a tough one yesterday as Jeff Samardzijia stunk up the join, allowing seven runs on Petco for one of his worst outings of the season. It wasn’t the opening weekend I was hoping for, going winless, but let’s see if we can get this thing back on a winning plane with a fresh new week and a new slate of games to analyze.

The break cooled me off a bit, but it certainly didn’t have the same effect on the ridiculous Dodgers. Los Angeles picked up right where they left off, sweeping through the Miami Marlins to push their record to an increasingly more staggering 64-29 and bringing a nine game winning streak to the hapless White Sox on the South Side.

Elsewhere in the Windy City, are things finally looking up in Chicago? The Cubs opened the second half with a nice sweep over the Baltimore Orioles and will be looking to keep things rolling against a team with a surprisingly similar record, the Atlanta Braves.

Let’s take a look at the Cubbies for today’s featured pick.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Chicago Cubs -155 at Atlanta Braves +145 (Total: 9)
Jon Lester vs. Julio Tehran

This is a battle of All Stars! Ok, in a different year, in a better time… this season? Nightmare for each. Lester and Tehran both have ERA’s pushing five, Lester is coming off one of the worst outings of his career and both teams are hovering right near the .500 mark. But there is a difference between the two and their performance; Lester had a bad outing, Tehran has had a bad SEASON in his new home.

Tehran enters tonight with a 1-6 record and a big fat 7.58 ERA in nine home starts this season. On the road, he looks like the All Star of old; a 6-0 record and a 2.53 ERA. At home though, complete disaster. And while the new park is a new stop for Lester as well, his lifetime in Atlanta has been a blissful one. He owns a 4-1 record with a 1.95 ERA in his career in the ATL.

Add in the fact that the Cubs might FINALLY be springing to life, and it is hard to back the Bravos tonight. There is some nice value at +110 on the runline, but I’m going to keep it close to the vest tonight out of respect for an early second half slump and see if we can get an easy W on the board. I like the Cubs big tonight, but am not 100% sure we will get vintage Lester, so perhaps the Braves can score some runs as well and push the nine run total.

Either way, I’ll take the simplest play tonight; Tehran struggling at home against a good Cubs team and Lester rebounding to get the W.

Today’s MLB Pick: CHICAGO CUBS TO WIN -155

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