Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick – July 4

The MLB is set up with another great slate of baseball action throughout July 4. Fourteen games are up on the board throughout Monday. One of these games will be between the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers. These two teams are on opposite sides of the standings, but will look for a win in this one. This game will start at around 4:10 PM Eastern time.

Chicago has earned a record of 32-47 throughout this season, which has them sitting in third place of the NL Central. The Cubs are coming off a loss in their last game, which ended a four game winning streak. Chicago is 11 games back on a wild card spot. The Cubs will look for a big win on the road in this matchup.

The Brewers have put up a record of 46-35 so far on the season, which has them in the top spot of the NL Central. Milwaukee was able to win their last game and have gone 7-3 throughout their last 10 games. The Brewers have a two game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals. Milwaukee will look to earn another big win on Monday night.

These two teams have been solid throughout this season and will look for a big win in this one. The Cubs have been solid in their last stretch of games and will look to keep it going in this one. Milwaukee will look for the win as they try to hold onto the top spot in the division. If either team can step up early, it could be enough for the win in this one.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Chicago Cubs +1 ½ (-145) +126 Over 9 (+100)
Milwaukee Brewers -1 ½ (+125) -150 Under 9 (-120)
Team Data Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers
Overall Record 32-47 46-35
Away/ Home Record 15-20 19-15
Batting Average .249 .238
Batting Average Away/ Home .241 .238
ERA 4.74 3.76
ERA Away/ Home 5.11 3.55

Betting Trends

Chicago Cubs

  • 2-1 in July games
  • 4-4 when playing on Monday
  • 18-20 against divisional opponents
  • 14-16 in day games
  • 9-12 against left handers
  • 18-29 after a loss
  • 17-24 against team with a winning record

Milwaukee Brewers

  • 2-1 in July
  • 5-4 when playing on a Monday
  • 26-15 against division rivals
  • 20-13 in day games
  • 13-13 against left handed starters
  • 3-3 after shutting out opponent
  • 26-19 after a win
  • 28-19 against team with a losing record

These two teams have met up 10 times this season. The first three games were in Chicago to open up the season. The Cubs won two of those three games. The next three shifted to Milwaukee between April 29 – May 1. The Brewers won two of that three game set at home. The most recent four games were in Chicago. The Cubs won the first two games, but Milwaukee took the next two to keep the season series at 5-5.

Offense

The Cubs have been solid at the plate throughout this season. Chicago has a .249 batting average, which is 10th in the league. The Cubs have earned an on base percentage of .326, which is 3rd in the MLB. Chicago has posted a .726 OPS, which is 12th in the league. The Cubs have a BA of .248 against lefties this season.

Milwaukee has struggled to hit the ball so far this season. The Brewers have a batting average of .238, which is 21st in the MLB. Milwaukee has put up a .316 OBP, which is 14th in the league. The Brewers have earned an OPS of .732, which is 9th in the MLB this season. Milwaukee has hit .226 against left handers.

These two teams have been solid throughout this season and will look for a quick start in this one. The Brewers have struggled a bit at times, but have picked up their hitting. Chicago will look to continue to hit well early in this one. If either team can hit the ball well early in this one, it could be enough for the win on Monday night.

Pitching Preview

Justin Steele will likely get the start on the mound for Chicago in this one. Steele has started in 15 games this season, going 3-5 in those matchups. He has posted a 4.39 ERA and a WHIP of 1.478 in those outings. Steele’s last start was against the Cincinnati Reds. He pitched five innings, giving up six hits and one run en route to the win.

I expect Eric Lauer to get the nod at pitcher for the Brewers on Monday night. Lauer has earned a record of 6-3 throughout his 14 starts on the season. He has put up an ERA of 4.02 and a 1.226 WHIP in those starts. Lauer pitched four and a third innings in his last start against the Tampa Bay Rays. He gave up six hits and three runs in the no decision.

Steele has won two his last three starts and will look to remain hot. Lauer has lost two of his last four starts entering this tilt. Milwaukee has the bullpen edge entering this one. The Brewers relievers have a 3.50 ERA, which is 9th in the league. The Cubs bullpen has a combined ERA of 4.45, which is 26th in the MLB.

Pick Overview

These two teams have been solid throughout this season and will look for a quick start in this one. The Cubs have won four of their last five games and will look to come out quickly. Milwaukee will look to step up early as well as they try to keep the top spot in the division. If the Brewers can build an early lead, I think they can get the win.

Bovada has Milwaukee listed as a -150 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Brewers will win this game around 60 percent of the time. I think that this line is accurate, but has little value. Milwaukee is listed as a -1 ½ for +125 in this game. I think the Brewers can control this game early to get the win.

The Bet
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
+125
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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