Cubs vs. Brewers MLB Pick – September 5th

The Milwaukee Brewers must get it together and fast if they want to play at least one game of playoff baseball. They are within striking distance at four games back, but with less than a month to go in the regular season and the Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Cubs all ahead they need to get hot and hope for those three clubs to fall into a dumpster fire.

The Cubs have a comfortable three-game lead over the Phillies and Diamondbacks going into tonight. That could change quickly, as we’ve come to find in Major League Baseball. The Cubs made easy work of the Mariners in their most recent series, as they downed Seattle by scores of 5-1 and 6-1 in a brief interleague tilt at Wrigley Field.

Chicago will face a familiar opponent this weekend on the road. The Cubs lost two of three games last week at home against the Brewers. It was a much needed trip to Wrigley for Milwaukee. Get swept there and they are further than five games back of the Cubs going into this series. Overcoming four games is definitely doable. The Cubs have been impressive at home this season, so the Brewers had to do it with their backs against the wall as underdogs in Wrigleyville. Even though they’re back home, the Brewers will likely find themselves as underdogs throughout the weekend, though.

The Cubs have been one of the most hot and cold teams in the majors this season. They’ve really been all over the place, which could make them a dangerous team in the postseason. If they can find the switch to turn the heat on, then the Cubs are capable of beating any team in the National League.

Jose Quintana will get the nod at Miller Park for the Cubs tonight. He will be making his 28th appearance of the season after blanking the Brew Crew in his most recent showing. Conversely, Chase Anderson is coming off a spotty performance in that game, with Quintana getting the win over Anderson, 7-1. We get a rematch on Thursday at Miller Park between Quintana and Anderson. Head below for our free Cubs vs. Brewers pick.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Cubs -125/Brewers +105
  • O/U: 9.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Jose Quintana (12-8, 3.90 ERA)
  • Chase Anderson (6-4, 4.58 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Quintana is having himself a typical season with the Cubs in 2019. That’s fine by the Cubs, as they continue to get consistent work out of Quintana. He posted a 3.74 ERA and 4.03 ERA the last two seasons, so he’s hovering around there this season. Quintana owns an ERA of 3.63 and record of 82-76 in his seven-year career. He will be looking for another high-quality outing against the Brewers at Miller Park tonight. Generally, the offense has performed well against Quintana in his career.

They’ve hit 11 home runs and 35 runs on Quintana in 352 at-bats. Ryan Braun has been a force against him, with 5 long balls and 10 RBI’s in 43 at-bats. So, there’s been a long history against this lineup and Quintana. Note that the Cubs are hitting .220 against Chase Anderson in 241 at-bats. Anderson is seeking a bounce back outing after the Cubs got to him for 7 hits and 5 earned runs in 4 innings at Wrigley Field.

Anderson has been a much better hurler at home than on the road, so this presents a nice spot for him to do much better. He’s been abysmal with a 5.88 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 49 innings. However, pitching at Miller Park has helped with a 3.63 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 67 innings at home.

The last time Anderson has allowed more than 3 runs at home was way back on June 21st against the Reds. In six of his last seven starts in Milwaukee, Anderson has yielded 2 or less runs. The Cubs’ struggles on the road have been well-documented, as they head into Milwaukee with a record of 28-39. Conversely, the Brewers have gone 40-30 at home in 2019. The Cubs have gone just 3-8 in their last eleven trips to Milwaukee. As small underdogs, the Brewers look like the better play at plus money Thursday night.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.