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Cubs vs. Cardinals Pick MLB – May 14th

We pushed yesterday with the Cubs and Cardinals landing right on the eight run total after the Cubs tallied two in the seventh to take the lead. We will try to get one in the winning column today with a packed Sunday slate of nice MLB action.

The highlight of yesterday’s schedule was the Nats walk off win courtesy of Bryce Harper and his shiny new contract (well deserved, obviously). The former MVP has looked like a future MVP so far in 2017 and has the Nationals just cruising towards a postseason run.

Today we have some good action to cap off the weekend, including a couple of extra games courtesy of rain this weekend forcing a few double headers. I like the value of the Reds at +135 against the Giants and struggling Jeff Samardzijia, but this is my favorite play on the board today:

Today’s MLB Pick:

Chicago Cubs -125 at St. Louis Cardinals +112 (Total: 8.5)
Jake Arrieta (4-2, 5.35 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (2-3, 6.37 ERA)

We now enter the portion of the program where I fade Adam Wainwright every five days. For those of you who read regularly, I truly do not delight in this strategy. I have no ill will towards Waino or the Cards, but as long as his ERA stays north of six and the lines don’t get to wide, it is hard not to take a look at fading the Cardinals when he is on the mound.

But today could be the exception. As much as Wainwright is struggling, Jake Arrieta hasn’t been much better. It is weird to look at a pair of former Cy Young winners with a run total of 8.5 and have it feel low, but that is exactly the case today. Arrieta is struggling this season and his last outing lasted just 3.2 innings. Was that following a trend of Arrieta’s continued decline or will it be the low point that triggers the bounce back?

If he is going to bounce back, today could very well be the day. His career numbers against St. Louis are INSANE. He has an 8-2 record and 1.71 ERA against the Cardinals, the lowest career ERA of any pitcher who has made ten or more starts against the Cardinals in MLB history. If there was ever a positive situation for Arrieta to attempt to get back on track, today is that spot.

In five of Wainwright’s seven starts he has allowed four or more runs. He hasn’t finished the sixth inning of a game this season. He has allowed 53 hits and walked 13 batters in just 35 innings for a WHIP approaching TWO.

This is a good spot for the Cubs and Arrieta to get a nice series win over their biggest rival. I’m going to take the Cubs today and double down on the runline to grab some value at +140

Today’s MLB Pick: CHICAGO CUBS TO WIN -125 AND CHICAGO CUBS RUNLINE -1.5 (+140)

 

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