We came up a few runs short last night with our Chicago and San Diego UNDER pick. The pitching ended up ruling the night and the bullpens shut down the show early with no runs crossing in the last four innings after the game edged to 3-2. We will try to get back on track tonight by daining to do something I generally avoid; going back to the exact same well twice.
Let’s see if we can get a better result with tonight’s tempting Cubs and Padres run total line.
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Today’s Free Pick:
Chicago Cubs -110 vs. San Diego Padres +100 (Total: 7)
|Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 5.15) vs. Odrisamer Despaigne (2-2, 6.75)|
Let’s start with the obvious. We have two starting pitchers on the mound who are more than susceptible to giving up some runs. Hendricks has been better than Despaigne, but still has some pretty bloated numbers. He has been reasonably good against the Padres, earning his first career win against them last year and allowing only two runs in six innings in his April 22nd meeting against the Padres this season. However, he has failed to make it past the sixth inning in his last five starts, giving up five runs in 5 2/3 innings last Friday against Pittsburgh.
On the opposing mound, Odrisamer Desaigne has been brutal lately. In his last three starts he has lasted just 14.2 innings with a 10.43 ERA. He has walked five batters and allowed an insane WHIP of 2.11. I don’t know if it will be that bad tonight at Petco, but the first two games have been pitcher-dominated and there are some good offenses waiting to bust loose. Despaigne has good stuff but control has been an issue, and he has struggled with both hi fastball and curveball lately. If you don’t have a pitch you feel good going to, you walk a lot of guys – or give up a lot of homeruns. Expect a few of both tonight.
The Cubs strikeout a ton. They have 24 in this series through two games and lead the majors with 387. That’s a TON, and not terribly surprising given their young lineup. But Despaigne hasn’t missed many bats lately. When the Cubs put it in play, good things happen. It should be a good night for Castro, Rizzo and Bryant.
I have two plays I like equally on this game. I think the Cubs win. And I think a bunch of runs get scored. Luckily, there is pretty good value in both lines. So I’m doubling up on the series finale tonight and taking the Cubbies AND the OVER.