We notched a ninth winning MLB day in our last twelve, including several plus-money underdog plays, thanks to James Shields delivering. The Padres got him two runs in the first inning and he made them stand up all day long en route to a 2-1 victory over the Rockies. We will try to carry this two-week momentum into the month of May and a fresh new week of baseball series.
In non-baseball, non-National League, and well, frankly, barely “sports” news, Justin Verlander is reportedly now engaged to Kate Upton. So, nothing to do with baseball, but I imagine his start tonight is somehow not too pressure packed when taken in total broad perspective of his super awesome wonderful life… Well done man, well done.
Let’s get back to baseball and grab a winner today.
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Today’s Free Pick:
Chicago Cubs -172 at Pittsburgh Pirates +162 (Total: 7)
Jake Arrieta (5-0, 1.00 ERA) vs. Jon Niese (3-0, 5.08 ERA)
Both pitchers are undefeated, but oh what different paths to perfection they have travelled. Arrieta is flirting with the rarified “Steph Curry Zone” of sports writing where the superlatives begin to become understated and redundant, and we must simply shake our heads and say “I’ve never seen anything like this…” He allowed a run in his last outing. And his ERA went up. A lot. Because he allowed a single run. The start before he was on the winning side of the most lopsided no-hitter in MLB history – his second in his last nine starts.
Meanwhile, how the BLEEP is Jon Niese unbeaten? His 5.08 ERA certainly deserves worse, and suffice it to say he is unlikely to get bailed out with run support tonight. I’d be surprised if the Pirates score twice, and certainly not more than two.
I’m at the point where I’m on Arrieta and on the runline until further notice. He has won all five starts this season personally – not just “Cubs win” but “Jake wins” and all five of them were won by AT LEAST four runs. He is a freaking ATM machine right now, spitting out piles of money every time you bet on him. Will it last forever? Of course not. But until it does, consider my greedy palm open wide.
Look for the Cubs to roll tonight behind Jake. You can bet on them to win at a thin -172, or get as low as -105 on the runline, which again, Jake is a perfect 5-0 this season cashing upon.
I’ll lay the run and a half and get in line at the Arrieta ATM tonight.