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Cubs vs. Pirates Pick MLB – May 4th

Well that was easy, wasn’t it?  We notched a tenth winning day in our last 13 in MLB and all we had to do was walk over to the Jake Arrieta ATM with our open palms extended.  The gifted gift that keeps on giving ran his record to 6-0 this season and every single start has been a runline Cubs victory.  Last night was the fifth of six that was at least a FOUR RUN winner.  The Cubs can hit and Jake throws up zeros.  I imagine the runline lines will start to condense, but for now, I am already eager to see what line the ATM will offer for Sunday’s start….

Fun Jake Arrieta stat:  Since his first start where he allowed three earned runs (and had two RBI) he has knocked in as many runs as he has allowed; ONE.  For the season, he has allowed four earned runs and trails in the RBI department by just a single run at three…

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Today’s Free Pick:

Chicago Cubs -135 at Pittsburgh Pirates +128 (Total: 7)

Jon Lester (2-1, 1.84 ERA) vs. Juan Nicasio (3-2, 3.33 ERA)

For all the (well deserved) talk about Jake Arrieta, the guy the Cubs brought in last year to be the ace is holding up his end of the bargain pretty nicely.  Jon Lester would be the #1 on just about every staff in baseball and his sub-two ERA is a big reason why the Cubs are looking like a team that might cruise past 100 victories in 2016.  Despite both Lester’s and the Cubs’ dominance at Pittsburgh, they are a pretty decent moneyline value today.

Chicago has won six straight games at PNC Park and can cap off another series sweep this afternoon.  Lester was 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA last year and has allowed just a single run in four of his five starts so far this season.  Nearly all the damage has been wrought by solo home runs, so perhaps some Pirate runs into one today, but expect the damage to be limited.

Juan Nicasio has been excellent at home this season with an ERA just under 2.00, but keep in mind, two of those starts were against the Brewers and Reds.  Today, he faces a Cubs juggernaut that has notched four or more runs in twelve straight games, with an average run production of 7.8.

I’m not betting against the Cubbies with Lester or Arrieta on the mound anytime soon, and if I can get them as a reasonable price, I’m all in until some contrary evidence begins to emerge.  I have a feeling the days of getting the Cubbies in the -130 range with either ace on the hill are about to be over.  I’ll cash in a few more times until they are…

Free Pick: Chicago Cubs to WIN -135