Cubs vs. Reds Pick MLB – April 28th + Bonus Pick

We came up a half run short yesterday as the Rockies held up their end of the bargain scoring six run against the Dodgers and Ryu, but the Dodgers could only muster one run against Jorge De La Rosa and the 6-1 score just missed the 7.5 run total.

We will try to bounce back today with a pair of picks to kick off a fresh set of series tonight.

We’ve reached the one-month mark of the MLB season. Let’s take a quick look at the best and worst wagers so far this season. Both Milwaukee and Atlanta are over +1000 this season, with the Brewers leading the league at an insane +1128. In the American League, things have played a little closer to the handicapping vest, with only Minnesota and Texas at more than +500 at +526 and +518 respectively.

On the negative side of things, there are a lot more to choose from with 18 of 30 teams bringing back a negative return so far in 2014. None however have brought more misery at the gambling window than the Arizona Diamondbacks whose 8-20 record has led to a -1128 return. The National League Central has been victim to the Brewers hot start as well as some disappointing performances by the Pirates and Reds (both at more than -700) and are the only team with four teams posting a negative return.

It’s early, but it is interesting to note some of the early season disappointments and keep an eye on whether or not that nice run is about to come.   Last year only seven teams finished more than 2000 on either side of even, so some regression to the mean is likely…

Today’s Free Picks

Chicago Cubs +125 at Cincinnati Reds -132 (Total: 7.5)

Jeff Samardzija vs. Alfredo Simon

The Reds just wallowed through a horrific series sweep down in Atlanta, and silent bats were a huge part of the problem. They scored one run in the last two games and just five in the entire series. They’ve mustered just seven runs in their last four games after a nice run of scoring 26 in five games (four wins). Tonight they face the Cubs best pitcher, but it’s a pitcher they’ve seen many times and fared relatively well against.

Samardzija is 0-4 with a 4.25 ERA in his last seven starts against the Reds, and the Cubs are a pathetic 7-25 in their last 32 games against Cincinnati. It seems like a perfect recipe for the immediate turn-about that baseball provides more than any other sport. Teams go through funks and wake up quickly often. I think seeing the Cubbies will be a nice wake-up call for the Reds bats tonight.

Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds to WIN -132

Milwaukee Brewers +150 at St. Louis Cardinals -160 (Total: 7)

Yovani Gallardo (2-0, 1.42 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (2-2, 2.10 ERA)

Forget the hot start of the Brewers and the nice rivalry with the Cardinals, this game would be appointment television for baseball fans on the sheer merit of the pitching matchup. Gallardo is living up to the hype that surrounded him five years ago, dominating the league so far through the month of April and looking like a frontline ace starting pitcher.

It doesn’t help the Brewers that Braun and Segura will likely be out of the lineup tonight, but it does make a low-scoring pitcher’s duel even more likely.

I like this one to stay low tonight, and I’ll take the UNDER 7

Free Pick: Run TOTAL UNDER 7

Chris Scheeren / Author