We had a winning night in MLB last night overall. The Phillies and Kyle Kendrick came up short as a heavy underdog in Washington and Jordan Zimmermann, but the Cardinals easily rewarded my confidence, piling up an easy 7-0 win in Los Angeles and proving their excellent run-line value.
We will try to keep it rolling today with a few more good value picks.
Today’s Free Picks:
Chicago Cubs +159 at Cincinnati Reds -167 (Total: 7.5)
Travis Wood (4-2, 2.24 ERA) vs. Homer Bailey (2-3, 3.09 ERA)
The Cubs will send Travis Wood to the mound today to face his former mates on the FOX afternoon game in an attempt to cool off the hottest team in baseball. Cincinnati has won four straight games and eight of ten overall. Their +60 run differential was the best in the majors until St. Louis countered with a 7-0 win to move them to +66. TO make matters even worse for the visiting Cubbies, the Reds have won 9 of 10 overall against Chicago.
Wood will have his work cut out for him. He’s been good this year, but there is a REASON why the line is so huge despite his impressive season statistics. The Reds hitting feasts on left-handed pitching, especially the fearsome heart of their order with Votto, Phillips and Bruce, all excelling against southpaws. Add in the familiarity factor with Travis Wood, and I expect a long afternoon (or short, in terms of innings pitched!
Meanwhile, we’ve hit winners twice this season already taking Homer Bailey against inferior teams. He absolutely eats up non-playoff lineups (really, anyone other than St. Louis this season) and is finally fulfilling the top-of-the-rotation hype that surrounded his early arrival to the big leagues five years ago.
I like Cincy today at home to push their MLB-best home record to 18-6, and I like them on the runline as well to squeeze in a little extra value.
Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds to WIN -167 & Cincinnati -1.5 (+135)
St. Louis Cardinals -106 at Los Angeles Dodgers -106
John Gast (2-0, 4.76 ERA) vs. Ted Lilly (0-1, 5.62 ERA)
The Cardinals and their MLB-leading +66 run differential face a familiar foe in long time NL Central hurler (Cubs) Ted Lilly. I am not sure he is the guy to slow down the Cardinal bats, but I am especially intruiged by the again near-even money line on tonight’s game. Until LA can show me they are really better than their record, I’m going to continue to exploit the advantageous lines wagering against them.
Neither pitcher has gotten a ton of work this season, not has either looked particular effective. In that case, take the team with the better offense; the Cardinals.
I also think this is a prime candidate to tally 8,9, 10 or more runs. I’m also going to take the OVEER 7.5. LA is a pitcher-friendly park, but I think these two pitchers, especially Lilly, might need a little more help than just the park tonight.
Free Picks: St. Louis Cardinals to WIN -106 & Run TOTAL OVER 7.5 (-110)