Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick – July 28

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to re-discover their winning ways after a tough loss last night that saw an end to their lengthy winning streak. Adam Wainwright kept Jays’ batters off-balance in a 6-1 victory, with Toronto seeking to rediscover their touch in the batters’ box as they begin a four-game set vs. the Detroit Tigers.

Toronto won its only series vs. the Tigers back in June, but in a tough battle for the AL Wild-Card, this red-hot offense has to be thinking about a 3-1 or 4-0 set over the weekend. Losing to inferior teams has been far too common for the Blue Jays here in 2022, and they’ll look to reverse that trend with a big series vs. the lowly Tigers.

It could be somewhat difficult for the Jays, who will turn to struggling pitcher Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday night. The Japanese thrower is returning vs. Detroit, coming off of the injured list for a slight neck strain. He was stellar in his AAA rehab start last week, but has had countless issues with control, velocity, and consistency in 2022. After the Jays committed a 3-year contract to him, they’ll surely be hoping that he can mow down this pedestrian Detroit lineup.

The TIgers will counter Kikuchi with left-handed pitcher Tyler Alexander. Toronto has typically mashed lefties this season with a right-handed heavy lineup, That said, Alexander is not yet fully stretched out, and likely won’t exceed 75 pitches in tonight’s contest. Detroit does boast a solid bullpen, with many arms that will no doubt be attracting a lot of interest in the lead-up to August 2nd’s trade deadline. With the Jays looking to rediscover their offense, this battle in the latter innings is one worth watching tonight. Detroit enters this weekend series well out of the playoff picture, but are rolling in with some confidence after securing a walk-off win yesterday vs. a highly regarded Padres’ squad.

PITCHING PROBABLES: Tigers: Tyler Alexander (2-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 18 strikeouts); Blue Jays: Yusei Kikuchi (3-5, 5.12 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 70 strikeouts)

With the Jays playing much better baseball under new manager John Schneider, they’ll be keen to not let last night’s listless approach derail their recent surge. While Yusei Kikuchi has been dismal in 2022, the light-hitting Tigers might be a good re-entry to the big leagues. He’s made it past the 4th inning just one of his past seven outings, and has conceded 24 runs in his past 23 innings pitched.

Though these teams don’t play all that often, it should be another stellar one to open an important four-game set for the Blue Jays. For added insight, the latest news, trends, and analysis, continue reading on beneath the posted odds for our breakdown and betting prediction for the opening encounter of this Toronto vs. Detroit border battle. Enjoy the game, folks!

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

  • Detroit Tigers +1.5 (+100)
  • Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)
  • Detroit Tigers (+190)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (-220)
  • Over 9.5 (-110)
  • Under 9.5 (-110)
Overall Record 40-59 54-44
Over/Under/Push 38-55-6 53-43-2
Home/Away Record 16-32 31-20
Runs Per Game 3.2 4.9
Runs Allowed Per Game 4.4 4.3
Team Batting Average .229 .267
Bullpen ERA 3.09 3.99

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction:

With the Tigers making the short trip across the border and up north to Toronto, they’ll likely enter as massive underdogs throughout the weekend. They’ve been bad away from Comerica Park, and are no doubt gearing up to sell some key pieces as we close in on next week’s trade deadline.

That said, there is still betting value on the young and pesky Tigers in tonight’s clash. This group showed fight in a three-game set vs. a talented San Diego club, and should be able to nullify the Jays tonight with steady work from a powerful bullpen. Tyler Alexander should go for three-four innings on Thursday night, and with Detroit’s relievers entering Toronto rested and healthy, it won’t be easy hitting once again for Toronto’s usually-powerful offense.

Meanwhile, the Jays have no clue at all when it comes to what they’ll get out of Yusei Kikuchi. He’ll be making his first start since July 5th, and the struggling lefty has not inspired confidence of late. Detroit’s offense has struggled, but even they should find good hitting against the Japanese veteran.

Kikuchi ranks in the bottom 1% this season in terms of average exit velocity and barrel rate. He’s been easy to hit, and when contact is getting made, it has been hard, and often for extra-bases. Detroit will look to field a right-handed heavy lineup tonight as RHB have crushed Kikuchi here in 2022, to the tune of a .270 batting average and a 3.99 wOBA.

Out of the bullpen, Detroit’s rested relievers could also come in mid-way through Thursday’s game and really stifle the Jays’ lineup. Despite their power and current form, they are not a versatile group, something team management is no doubt working to address before the trade deadline. Look for Detroit manager AJ Hinch to utilize effective matchups to give his team a shot as lopsided underdogs, via Alex Lange, Joe Jimenez, Michael Fulmer, and Andrew Chafin. All of those rested options have been elite this season, and that quartet should be able to limit Toronto’s top-five bats.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays Trends To Know:

  • Tigers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 overall.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in Tigers last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a loss.

With the Jays’ offense falling into some of its old habits last night, look for an impressive approach to Detroit stifling them once again on Thursday.  It’s unfathomable to back Toronto at this number given how awful Yusei Kikuchi has been here in 2022, and a right-handed heavy Tigers’ lineup should give them a shot at securing the big upset on Thursday evening.

Our Pick
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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