Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick – July 31

The Toronto Blue Jays responded in a big way to Friday night’s performance, following that up with a thrilling come-from-behind victory against the Detroit Tigers on Saturday afternoon. Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez hit a moonshot to win the game in the late innings, with the Jays finally getting to this heralded Tigers’ bullpen. All of these outings remain crucial for the Jays, as they are still very much in a big battle to try and secure one of the coveted AL Wild-Card spots.

The hometown Jays will look to assert their dominance over Detroit once more on Sunday, as they close out the season series at the Rogers Centre. A couple of struggling pitchers will duel one another, with overpriced veteran Jose Berrios seeking to find his game for the Jays. Berrios has been wildly inconsistent after signing a 7-year/$131-million dollar mega-deal in the off-season. He’s either been borderline unhittable, or out there pitching a home run derby. There’s been little in between, and it will be fascinating to see which Berrios we see on Sunday.

PITCHING PROBABLES: Tigers: Garrett Hill (1-2, 5.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10 strikeouts); Blue Jays: Jose Berrios (7-4, 5.20 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 100 strikeouts)

Berrios, will be countered by journeyman starter Garrett Hill for the TIgers. He too has been abysmal in four starts this season for Detroit, and has really struggled with his control of late. In his last start vs. San Diego, Hill walked four batters in five innings, while also scattering five hits and three runs. Not exactly the recipe for success against this hot-hitting Jays’ offense.

Though these teams are definitely trending in opposite directions as we close in on Tuesday’s trade deadline, there is still some solid value that we’ve isolated for Sunday’s crucial showdown. Though odds indicate it’s lopsided, the Jays remain a deeply flawed team, despite John Schneider recently taking over in the dugout. Jose Berrios needs to shake off his struggles fast, for Toronto to realistically contend. For added insight, the latest news, trends, and analysis, continue reading on beneath the posted odds for our breakdown and betting prediction for the final game of this entertaining Tigers/Blue Jays series. Enjoy the game, folks!

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

  • Detroit Tigers +1.5 (+120)
  • Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-140)
  • Detroit Tigers (+240)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (-280)
  • Over 8.5 (-110)
  • Under 8.5 (-110)
Overall Record 41-61 56-45
Over/Under/Push 38-57-5 54-44-2
Home/Away Record 17-33 33-20
Runs Per Game 3.2 4.9
Runs Allowed Per Game 4.4 4.3
Team Batting Average .233 .269
Bullpen ERA 3.09 3.99

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction:

Though not much has gone right for Jose Berrios in his first full-season as a Blue Jay, he has started to show some signs in the right direction. For starters, he’s been much better at home, and against a light-hitting Detroit offense, look for Berrios to do a good job with his out pitches and staying ahead of these inexperienced batters.

And while Berrios is particularly struggling with the long ball, and enters Sunday afternoon conceding 1.8 home runs per 9 innings, the TIgers have struggled with power and hitting it out all season long. If Berrios can stay focused for six innings and work to get ahead of batters, look for Detroit to become confused and frustrated by some of Berrios’ filthier stuff.

Though the Jays’ offense can sometimes be a bit like their pitcher in Jose Berrios – inconsistent, they too have started to figure it out. Since the All-Star break this team has put up a lot of runs, and done so in a fairly timely fashion. Their leader at the dish in Vladmir Guerrero Jr. is hitting a staggering .400 over his past ten games, and don’t expect Garrett Hill or the Tigers’ bullpen to offer up too many solutions for the Jays’ star. There’s also the fact that Detroit likely plans on trading many of their key bullpen arms, which definitely calls into question their availability for Sunday’s series finale.

Beyond this, Matt Chapman enters as the hottest hitter in baseball right now, with five homers on the week, and pushing towards that .300 batting average mark. He’s getting it done right now at both the plate and in the field, giving Toronto exactly what they needed when they acquired him. Batting 7th in the order, it does go to show you how lethal this Jays’ offense can truly be. Garrett Hill enters inexperienced, and in his four outings to date, he’s yet to see a lineup as powerful as Toronto’s.

On the other end of things, Detroit’s struggles are likely to continue at the dish, even though they’re going against an erratic thrower in Berrios. The Tigers enter Sunday afternoon ranking as the worst team in baseball in offensive WAR, and are still without their best hitter in Austin Meadows. Berrios is familiar with the Tigers having faced them many times when he was a Minnesota Twin, and has already dominated this lineup back in June, registering 13 strikeouts. It could be another long outing for Detroit’s quiet bats.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays Trends To Know:

  • Tigers are 2-12 in their last 14 vs. American League East.
  • Tigers are 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Tigers are 3-11 in their last 14 road games.
  • Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League Central.
  • Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 overall.
  • Blue Jays are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win.
  • Tigers are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings.

Though the Tigers have played Toronto tight this season, they’ve struggled to get over the hump and secure victories.  Even though the Jays will be without OF George Springer in Sunday’s series finale, this Toronto lineup is still loaded enough to do real damage to unproven rookie Garrett Hill.  Beyond Hill, the Tigers won’t go too deep into their bullpen with the deadline looming, and expect Berrios to again be solid on home turf.  Toronto needs to keep compiling victories, and can ill afford any days off.  Expect a big offensive burst to close out Detroit, and back the Jays comfortably on the run-line. 

Our Pick
Blue Jays -1.5
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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