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Diamondbacks at Padres – Pick for April 10th

Arizona Diamondbacks -115 @ San Diego Padres +105

Trevor Cahill (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Edinson Volquez (0-1, 3.60 ERA)

Edinson Volquez was a bit of a surprise Opening Day starter for the San Diego Padres.  The former Red was acquired in the off-season in a trade with the Reds for Mat Latos.  The deal seemed lopsided when reported as a one-for-one, but the true reason the Padres made the deal was that they acquired first baseman Yonder Alonzo, who will play every day for the Padres, as well as Top 50 prospect catcher Yasmani Grandal.

The fact that Volquez was the Opening Day starter and “#1” is less an indication of his solid performance and more of an indictment of the Padres pitching uncertainties team-wide.  His 2011 season was a season to forget, going 5-7 with a 5.71 ERA in an injury-riddled season.  His history against Arizona gives little cause for optimism either, with a lifetime 0-1 record and 5.19 ERA in three starts.  Volquez will benefit a bit from pitcher-friendly Petco Park, but when other team’s castoffs are your #1 starter, things aren’t looking too great for your season.

For the Diamondbacks, they will send 24-year old right hander Trevor Cahill to the mound, in search of the first 4-0 team start in D’back franchise history.  Cahill was electric in 2010 for Oakland, but is looking to rebound from a very mediocre 2011 season where he went just 12-14 with a 4.16 ERA.  Hopefully he can improve on a rough Spring, where he was 0-3 with a 4.86 ERA.

Adding these two pitcher’s recent track records together, and it begs the obvious question, “how is this over/under 6.5?!?”  I agree with you.  It seems about a run to run and a half too low, especially when you consider most MLB games fall into the 7.5-9 range.  Neither one of these squads is treacherous with the lumber, but it is very easy to see a 5-3 or 6-4 ballgame tonight given the respective pitching matchups.

Arizona has gone over is their first three games of 2012, averaging 5.7 runs; nearly enough to cover tonight’s over by themselves.  Unless you are banking on Cahill to shake off a year-plus of rust and throw a shutout tonight, it seems like the OVER is the right play.

From San Diego’s perspective, they are 2-0-1 this season OVER, and are allowing an average of 5.7 runs a contest as well.  Add it up – it looks like a 3-2 game is less than likely.  I’m going to play the percentages and trends tonight and take the OVER 6.5

Free Pick:  Total OVER 6.5 (-105)