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Diamondbacks vs. Giants Pick MLB – July 10th

It is the final day before we take a break for the Midsummer’s Classic, and frankly, I wish we could just keep on plowing along.  Sure, a lot of teams look gassed and a ton of pitchers NEED an extra day or two of rest, but selfishly, we have stacked winners in ten of our last twelve National League plays, all without the benefit of a single favorite of greater than the standard -110 run total line.  It’s been a nice run, and hopefully we can lean through the tape this afternoon.

Either way, I’ll be bummed to hit pause for too long the way we are all rolling right now…

You are probably tired of me talking Cubs – I get it if you are NOT a fan of them (and for the record, I am NOT a Cubs fan, I just find their whole season arc fascinating).  But their stunning fall from grace in July is really amazing.  They went from the best record in baseball, a blistering record-setting run differential pace, and the best ERA in baseball to losers of 15 of their last 20 and as a team they have not recorded a single quality start in the MONTH OF JULY.  That includes two absolute clunkers from Arrieta and Lester.  The Pirates are now just 6 ½ games back with a chance to shave one more off this afternoon and things are getting really interesting/nervous depending upon one’s fandom perspective…

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Today’s Free Pick:

Arizona Diamondbacks +214 at San Francisco Giants -224 (Total: 7.5)

Archie Bradley (3-4, 4.81 ERA) vs. Madison Bumgarner (9-4, 2.09 ERA)

Bumgarner gets the ball tonight, which eliminates yet ANOTHER candidate to start Tuesday Night’s All Star Game, but it does bode well for the Giants and their quest to head into the break with the best record in baseball and a commanding lead in the National League West.  Bumgarner had a weird blip two starts ago against Bay Area rival Oakland, but outside of that, he has been dynamite.  He owns quality starts in nine of his last ten outings and has allowed one or less run in seven of them.  Expect him to dominate tonight with the added attention of Sunday Night Baseball and be in top form.

Opposing him is Archie Bradley who enters with an ERA near five and having allowed eight runs in his last two starts, neither against powerful lineups in San Diego and Philadelphia.  In short, there is a reason why the ‘Backs are more than 2:1 underdogs tonight.

But for SOME reason, the Giants are as low as -115 on the runline, which feels really generous.  I’d have laid -130 and felt strongly that this was one of the top values on today’s National League menu.  At nearly even money, it rockets to the top of my value plays.

The Giants have won seven of their last nine games and six of those wins covered the -1.5 runline.  They have lost three of Bumgarner’s last four starts; one was his fault in a lone poor performance this season, the other two were tough-luck offensive no shows.  I don’t think they will have the same trouble denting the plate against Archie Bradley tonight.

Free Pick:  San Francisco Giants RUNLINE -1.5 (-115)