I like to keep things interesting; write about different teams, explore all the matchups and wagering opportunities on the board, find hidden values, bring you guys new statistics, etc. But sometimes, keeping it simple is just the way to make some easy cash.
Such is life these days when the Cubs trot out Arrieta and Lester. I went Cubs, AGAIN, yesterday, but it led to our 12th winning day of the last 15, so I imagine you’ll forgive the redundancy… So, at this point as we near the 1/6th mark of the baseball season, the Cubs are on pace to post the greatest run differential in MLB history, toppling marks by teams like the ’37 Yankees by well over one hundred runs. They are on pace to topple the famed “Murderer’s Row” ’27 Yankees by 150 or more. At this current rate, they would win an MLB-record 125 games.
So when are these lines going to adjust?? We got Lester and the Cubs, who have won seven straight in PNC Park and only laid -135 for the privilege? I got Arrita on the runline, which he has covered in all six starts, at near even money?? Folks, this gravy train is going to get more expensive to ride REAL soon, but man, these were two of the more generous lines I’ve seen in a while.
Of course, things could change quickly, as what appears to be the two best teams in baseball meet this weekend for an awesome four game series in Washington, and sadly, Lester will be the starter who doesn’t participate due to yesterday’s appearance in the rotation. If the Cubbies can take three of four HERE, then the speculation and hype will reach unfathomable levels…
Today’s Free Pick:
Arizona Diamondbacks +130 at Miami Marlins -132 (Total: 7.5, -120)
Robbie Ray (1-1, 4.97 ERA) vs. Adam Conley (1-1, 3.67 ERA)
Let’s start with the pick. I like some runs tonight and think that if you wanted to dodge the juice and go OVER at 8, I’d still be on board with the pick, though not quite as enthusiastically. I like the extra half run tonight mostly because of the inconsistency of Miami’s offense. They have some big bats in the lineup and have scored some runs lately, scoring at least four runs in seven of the last nine games (not coincidentally, winning seven of their last nine games as well). I think they’ll touch up Ray tonight at home, but not sure they have another seven run explosion in them tonight.
Arizona is one of the better offensive teams in the NL, despite losing AJ Pollock and despite scoring their runs somewhat quietly. Their overall offensive numbers are right on par with Colorado and Pittsburgh, and ahead of the Dodgers and Nationals. They just haven’t gotten the pitching to support it like those other clubs (Colorado excepted) have received.
I think it’ll be another typical D-Backs game tonight. They’ll get their three or four runs, but it won’t be enough to win as they surrender more. I like a 6-4 or 5-3 type game tonight (another reason I really like the extra half run on the OVER).
Free Pick: Run TOTAL OVER 7.5