Diamondbacks vs. Padres MLB Pick – May 20th

The Arizona Diamondbacks couldn’t get their offense going on Sunday, as they managed just 2 runs in the bottom of the 4th inning. By the end of extra innings, the Diamondbacks recorded just 3 hits to go along with a 3-2 loss. Adam Jones had a chance to end the game in the bottom of the 9th with a runner on 3rd, but he came up short and Pablo Sandoval took advantage shortly after with a solo shot.

The Giants weren’t hitting either against Robbie Ray, who had a nice day despite getting no help from the bats. When you get a runner on base in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, good teams find a way to that guy across the plate. The Diamondbacks played small ball with a sac-bunt and failed to get their 4th hit of the game to win. That’s all they needed to win, but instead took their second loss in a row and two of three against the Giants over the weekend.

Arizona will look for a better week starting in San Diego on Monday. I’m afraid it’s going to be a slow death for the D-Backs this season, though. Losing Paul Goldschmidt in the offseason solidified the beginning of a rebuilding process in the desert. There will be a bigger salary dump at the trade deadline, likely with Zack Greinke the centerpiece of a trade. Drew Pomeranz was really struggling going into yesterday, but he handled the Diamondback offense well.

They will have to tame a hot rookie on Monday, as they face the electric Chris Paddack. The Padres aren’t babying Paddack with the training wheels getting taken off immediately. He’s made the most out of the opportunity, developing into the go-to ace of the rotation. Paddack looks to keep it rolling against the reeling Diamondbacks. Luke Weaver, no relation to Jeff or Jered, will counter for the Diamondbacks. The former Cardinal has looked good thus far in his fourth season in the major leagues and first in Arizona. Head below for our free Diamondbacks vs. Padres pick.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Padres -150/Diamondbacks +130
  • O/U: 7.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Luke Weaver (3-2, 3.16 ERA)
  • Chris Paddack (3-2, 1.99 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

The Padres acquired Manny Machado to give this team a legitimate threat the plate. For ages they were shy about spending big money in free agency, but they had a change of heart on Machado. With the team beginning to turn around and Machado as a centerpiece, the Padres should have an easier job attracting more talent in the offseason. Machado isn’t going to make this team an instant contender, but they at least have something to build around offensively now.

Paddack definitely looks like a pitcher that they may be able to have a centerpiece of their rotation for years to come. It’s too early in his career to say one thing or the other, but early indicators have been excellent. The 23-year-old goes into Monday with a stellar ERA of 1.99 and 0.75 WHIP.

He is coming off what is his worst start of the year, allowing 3 runs across 4.2 innings of work. That’s not exactly bad and Paddack hasn’t given up 3 runs in any start this season. In six of his eight starts, he’s allowed 2 or less runs. And his last outing was against the Dodgers on the road, a little different than the Diamondbacks at home.

Paddack has been nearly perfect at home with an ERA of 1.40 and 0.55 WHIP. In 25.2 innings, Paddack has allowed only 10 hits and 4 runs in San Diego. It’s a friendly park to pitch in and Paddack has taken full advantage of Petco. In his previous 14.2 innings pitched here, Paddack has yielded 5 hits while allowing no runs. He’s already tied the Diamondbacks down once this season, as they managed 3 hits and 1 run against him in Arizona on April 12th.

Paddack enters with an ERA of 2.45 in his last three games, while Weaver has been as equally impressive with a 2.25 ERA in his previous three. Weaver has allowed less than 4 runs in every start but his 2019 debut back on March 31st against the Dodgers. He’s allowed 1 or no runs in four of his last six appearances.

He held the Padres to 2 runs in a 2-1 loss on April 12th, so this is a rematch between Weaver and Paddack this evening. We should see more than 3 runs on the board tonight, but I still seeing the final score going UNDER the total in San Diego. I was expecting a total of 7, so 7.5 looks like an attractive option here.

The Bet
UNDER 7.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.