An interesting weekend in Major League Baseball continued with some more surprising results yesterday. The Braves earned an unlikely series win over the Nationals, winning the first two games of the series and beating Gio Gonzalez and Max Scherzer in the process, tallying seven runs off the two Cy Young candidates in a combined ten innings. All of a sudden, the Nats are looking mortal and the Brewers and Rockies are on the heels and slightly ahead respectively.
Speaking of the Brew Crew, they were postponed yesterday after a marathon seven-hour, nine-inning win over the Cubs and get a shot at Jake Arrieta and his 5.44 ERA to steal a short series victory and improve on their surprising 2 ½ game NL Central lead.
There are some nice matchups in the afternoon schedule today, including Strasburg and the Nats trying to salvage the last game of the weekend set against Atlanta, Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright on a throwback Sunday matchup in St. Louis, and the Rockies looking to improve their NL-best record with a rubber game in Cincinnati and Bronson Arroyo.
Let’s see if we can cap off the week with a winner.
Today’s MLB Pick:
Arizona Diamondbacks -118 at San Diego Padres +110 (Total: 8)
Zack Godley (1-0, 1.93 ERA) vs. Clayton Richard (2-5, 4.93 ERA)
The Diamondbacks have won five straight games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Padres. The Padres have dropped five straight games overall and have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five home games overall. These are two teams heading in completely opposite directions. Overall, the Padres, who are 15-30 overall and just 3-13 in their last 16 games. It’s been BAD in San Diego, and a date with Zack Godley and hot-hitting D’Backs is probably not the recipe for better results.
There are also a TON of weird statistical trends and issues going against San Diego today. This season, they are 1-4 on Sundays, 3-9 in day games and just 3-11 in series finales. Extending back to 2016, the numbers are similar – and still really lousy. They are 7-24 on Sundays, 18-44 in day games and just 15-51 in series finales.
And aside from all the other stats and trends, Arizona is a good team this year and San Diego is really NOT. The ‘Backs also have a nice starting pitching advantage today with Godley against the struggling Clayton Richard.
The line is pretty favorable as well at just -118. However, considering the Backs have won their last five all by more than one run and the Padres have lost five in a row in similar fashion, the +140 on the runline looks like a nice profit opportunity.
Today’s MLB Picks: ARIZONA TO WIN -118 AND ARIZONA RUNLINE -1.5 (+140)