Yesterday was profitable for anyone who followed along with our Brewers pick over the Cardinals. Milwaukee offered some strong value and thanks to an Eric Thames home run late in the game, that bet paid off. We’re shifting our focus to tonight’s tilt at Citizens Bank Park, where the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Philadelphia Phillies.
There could be more value to be had in this showdown, as Arizona seeks a fifth straight win, as well as their 8th victory in their last 11 games. The D’Backs remain in contention for first place in the crowded NL West at 41-26 and look to be in fine form after taking down the Detroit Tigers in a short two-game series. The Diamondbacks continue to boast one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball, but even that scorching lineup could be tested thanks to a shaky 15-17 road record.
Philadelphia plays host after snagging a big upset win over Chris Sale and the visiting Boston Red Sox. Nick Pivetta matched Sale pitch for pitch (we’re not sure how) and now the Phillies should be riding pretty high. They could easily come crashing down, however, as they’re still just 2-8 over their last 10 games and haven’t exactly been dominant (13-17) on their home field.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+106) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-126) Total: 9
Patrick Corbin (5-6, 5.38 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (3-4, 4.40 ERA)
We get some solid value in this one, as Arizona enters as the clear underdogs. The big reason why is Nola, who gives the Phillies a talented arm to get behind and could give the D’Backs a lot to think about on the road. The emphasis is obviously on “could”, as Nola has not been a challenging arm at home (6.00 ERA at Citizens Bank Park).
The 24-year old Nola has flashed brilliance in his young career and is a stable arm, but this is certainly not an ideal matchup. Arizona knocked Nola around pretty good the only other time he faced them in 2015 and the D’Backs absolutely crush right-handed pitching. Jake Lamb is notorious for clubbing righties to death, but the Diamondbacks as a whole rank 9th in home runs versus righties and also sport the league’s 4th best batting average against right-handed hurlers.
Nola can manage games at a high level, but his K rate hasn’t been elite this year and he might give up a little too much contact to feel overly comfortable about him in this spot. That being said, it’s not impossible to imagine Nola coming out and really holding his own at home, while the Phillies could also always get something going offensively against the beatable Corbin.
Corbin has a more impressive K rate than Nola, but he hasn’t proven himself to be a more stable option to this point in his career and he gives up a ton of hard contact. That could be problematic in a hitter’s park where a powerful Phillies lineup awaits. Philadelphia is beyond unreliable offensively, but they actually rank 4th in power against southpaws on the year.
Ultimately, this is probably going to be a shootout. Arizona is too stacked to feel confident in Nola cruising through their lineup, while the Phillies have the splits and power edge on Corbin. I think we can safely shoot for the Over, but the D’Backs offer too much value in this spot. I’ll chase the Over as a secondary bet and back the Diamondbacks tonight.