We notched a winner last night, but the Braves made us sweat another one in unexpected fashion as the craziness of the summer appears to be fully upon us. You have to be feeling pretty good sitting on the UNDER in the eighth inning of a 2-0 game between two of the worst offensive teams in the league. A seven-run Braves bottom of the eighth made for some nervous moments, but alas, we tucked a half run safely in the winner’s circle.
Hopefully we can find a less stressful avenue tonight.
There’s some nice games on the slate, highlighted by the start of the Diamondbacks and Rockies starting a massive series in Denver. The Rox will be at home at Coors Field, but can Zack Greinke make that home field a little less comfortable??
Today’s MLB Pick:
Arizona Diamondbacks +104 at Colorado Rockies -113 (Total: 11)
Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.00 ERA) vs. German Marquez (5-3, 4.19 ERA)
Two of the hottest and most surprising teams in baseball square off tonight to begin a HUGE National League West series. It is also a matchup of two of the BEST teams in MLB. The ‘Backs have won seven straight games and ten of their last eleven overall. Colorado has won five straight at home and 12 of their last 15 overall. Something has to give tonight, and the Diamondbacks are hoping their former Cy Young winner can be the difference.
But will he?
Greinke has good numbers on the season and he hasn’t been “bad” at any point. But he does only have one quality start in the last month (six starts) and has been far less than pitch efficient lately. How will he handle the thin air and powerful Rockies lineup tonight? History says he will do no worse than give his mates a chance to win. He is 8-4 with a 4.03 ERA in his career against Colorado (22 starts) and 3-0 with a 4.03 ERA in eight starts at Coors Field. Don’t expect him to get battered as hard as the Run Total of 11 indicates.
Likewise for Marquez. The Rockies are 6-1 in his last seven starts, and only once has he allowed more than two runs (six in five innings at San Diego, of all places.) In his other six starts, he has allowed an average of one run over just under six innings.
Runs get piled up at Coors, and both these teams can score in bunches. But eleven is a big number and both starting pitchers have been solid. I’ll take this game to tuck somewhere in the 5-4, 6-3 range and stay under the lofty eleven run total.
Today’s MLB Pick: RUN TOTAL UNDER 11